<p>Earthquake-induced landslides are most prone to occurring in the near-fault regions. Characteristics and spatial distributions of ground motions in these regions are strongly influenced by the source rupture mechanism and size. This paper presents a probabilistic assessment framework for seismic slope displacements in the near-source region associated with dip-slip fault rupture. A three-dimensional fault source model is incorporated to explicitly account for the location and geometry of rupture. The aleatory variabilities of ground motions and prediction of seismic slope displacements are rigorously included. Particularly, different types (i.e., the near-fault pulse, near-fault non-pulse and far-field) of ground motion and the orientation-related range of slope displacements resulting from ground motion directionality are considered. The procedure is implemented in a case study of the Maidan fault in Xinjiang, China on a regional scale. The seismic slope displacement hazard maps are produced for 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. The importance of incorporating near-source pulse and directionality effects in seismic landslide hazard assessments is highlighted. In addition, disaggregation analysis is employed to further provide displacement-based and hazard-consistent design magnitude and distance for various seismic scenarios, which is required for use in the detailed, site-specific analysis of seismic slope stability. </p>

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Probabilistic assessment of seismic‑induced slope displacements in the near-source region associated with dip-slip fault rupture: a case study of Maidan fault in Xinjiang, China

  • Jian Song,
  • Sheng Zhang,
  • Yongxin Wu,
  • Jian Ji,
  • Daiguang Yu,
  • Haidong Luo,
  • Mao Ye,
  • Yufeng Gao

摘要

Earthquake-induced landslides are most prone to occurring in the near-fault regions. Characteristics and spatial distributions of ground motions in these regions are strongly influenced by the source rupture mechanism and size. This paper presents a probabilistic assessment framework for seismic slope displacements in the near-source region associated with dip-slip fault rupture. A three-dimensional fault source model is incorporated to explicitly account for the location and geometry of rupture. The aleatory variabilities of ground motions and prediction of seismic slope displacements are rigorously included. Particularly, different types (i.e., the near-fault pulse, near-fault non-pulse and far-field) of ground motion and the orientation-related range of slope displacements resulting from ground motion directionality are considered. The procedure is implemented in a case study of the Maidan fault in Xinjiang, China on a regional scale. The seismic slope displacement hazard maps are produced for 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. The importance of incorporating near-source pulse and directionality effects in seismic landslide hazard assessments is highlighted. In addition, disaggregation analysis is employed to further provide displacement-based and hazard-consistent design magnitude and distance for various seismic scenarios, which is required for use in the detailed, site-specific analysis of seismic slope stability.