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<p>Climate warming has induced extensive thaw settlements in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) permafrost regions, but the risks have not been quantified. Based on the remote sensing image extracted thaw settlement and socio-economic data, this study constructs a thaw settlement hazard assessment system using random forest algorithm, and applies ecological footprint method to obtain the human activity intensity (HAI) distribution. Subsequently, their results were integrated to assess the current risk and forecast potential changes by mid-century. Our findings indicate that the average thaw settlement hazard index (TSHI) is projected to rise from 0.27 at present to 0.32 by the 2050s. This increase will lead to a rise in the proportion areas classified as high and very high-hazard from 25.62% to 30.04%. Regions with high HAI values are primarily located in seasonally frozen ground zones, particularly in the northeastern and southern QTP, and along transportation routes in permafrost areas. Currently, high and very high-risk areas encompass 13.79% of permafrost region, affecting 7,264&#xa0;km of highways, 494&#xa0;km of railways, and 0.24&#xa0;million people. By the 2050s, climate warming is expected to elevate the risk level in 14.68% of the current permafrost area. High and very high-risk regions are anticipated to cover 15.24% of the area, with the total length of affected highways and railways reaching 8,230&#xa0;km and 500&#xa0;km, respectively, impacting 0.29&#xa0;million people. These insights contribute to thaw settlement risk research and provide scientific evidence for the QTP permafrost engineering disaster prevention.</p>

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Integrating thaw settlement hazard and human socio-economic activity for the current and mid-21st century risk evaluation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月10日

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  • Renwei Li,
  • Mingyi Zhang,
  • Wansheng Pei,
  • Zhao Duan

摘要

Climate warming has induced extensive thaw settlements in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) permafrost regions, but the risks have not been quantified. Based on the remote sensing image extracted thaw settlement and socio-economic data, this study constructs a thaw settlement hazard assessment system using random forest algorithm, and applies ecological footprint method to obtain the human activity intensity (HAI) distribution. Subsequently, their results were integrated to assess the current risk and forecast potential changes by mid-century. Our findings indicate that the average thaw settlement hazard index (TSHI) is projected to rise from 0.27 at present to 0.32 by the 2050s. This increase will lead to a rise in the proportion areas classified as high and very high-hazard from 25.62% to 30.04%. Regions with high HAI values are primarily located in seasonally frozen ground zones, particularly in the northeastern and southern QTP, and along transportation routes in permafrost areas. Currently, high and very high-risk areas encompass 13.79% of permafrost region, affecting 7,264 km of highways, 494 km of railways, and 0.24 million people. By the 2050s, climate warming is expected to elevate the risk level in 14.68% of the current permafrost area. High and very high-risk regions are anticipated to cover 15.24% of the area, with the total length of affected highways and railways reaching 8,230 km and 500 km, respectively, impacting 0.29 million people. These insights contribute to thaw settlement risk research and provide scientific evidence for the QTP permafrost engineering disaster prevention.