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<p>Understanding how groundwater systems respond to climate change and ecological water replenishment is vital for sustainable water resource management. In this study, a physically based coupled surface water–groundwater model (SWAT-MODFLOW) was developed for the upstream region of the Chaobai River Basin in northern China. Future rainfall data from three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) were downscaled and bias-corrected into the coupled model. The coupled SWAT-MODFLOW model accurately captures the phase and amplitude of streamflow at a representative hydrological station and seasonal groundwater fluctuations at all observation wells. Simulations under future climate scenarios revealed projected rainfall increases of 15% to 19% for the 2030–2050 period compared to the 1961–2020 period, leading to spatially heterogeneous responses in groundwater levels. Projections show pronounced groundwater-level rises in the central and southwestern basin, modest declines in the north, and the greatest recovery under SSP5-8.5, followed by SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6. Moreover, ecological water replenishment has led to significant increases in groundwater levels along primary groundwater recharge zones in the Chaobai River Basin. These findings highlight the combined potential of climate-adaptive strategies and managed aquifer recharge in restoring groundwater levels and improving water security in vulnerable river basins.</p>

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Groundwater level response to climate change and ecological water replenishment in the Chaobai River Basin, China, using SWAT-MODFLOW

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月4日

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  • Haibo Chu,
  • Yuan Si,
  • Zonghan Wang,
  • Huanjie Ruan,
  • Jiahua Wei,
  • Jiaqi Xu

摘要

Understanding how groundwater systems respond to climate change and ecological water replenishment is vital for sustainable water resource management. In this study, a physically based coupled surface water–groundwater model (SWAT-MODFLOW) was developed for the upstream region of the Chaobai River Basin in northern China. Future rainfall data from three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) were downscaled and bias-corrected into the coupled model. The coupled SWAT-MODFLOW model accurately captures the phase and amplitude of streamflow at a representative hydrological station and seasonal groundwater fluctuations at all observation wells. Simulations under future climate scenarios revealed projected rainfall increases of 15% to 19% for the 2030–2050 period compared to the 1961–2020 period, leading to spatially heterogeneous responses in groundwater levels. Projections show pronounced groundwater-level rises in the central and southwestern basin, modest declines in the north, and the greatest recovery under SSP5-8.5, followed by SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6. Moreover, ecological water replenishment has led to significant increases in groundwater levels along primary groundwater recharge zones in the Chaobai River Basin. These findings highlight the combined potential of climate-adaptive strategies and managed aquifer recharge in restoring groundwater levels and improving water security in vulnerable river basins.