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<p>Contemporary literature underscores the demographic and economic stagnation of non-urban areas, driven by ongoing urbanization and the associated outflow of human capital. Although counterurban migration has long been proposed as a&#xa0;potential remedy, empirical evidence on its long-term consequences remains limited, particularly with respect to individuals who remain in these areas over time. This study examines post-migration staying among individuals who moved from metropolitan to non-metropolitan regions in Sweden between 2006 and 2010, analysing the determinants of staying duration over a&#xa0;ten-year follow-up period using administrative register data. Employing survival models, the analysis reveals substantial variation in staying duration across regional contexts and migrant sub-groups. Longer residential stability is more strongly associated with proximity to metropolitan labour markets, family-related characteristics, and prior regional ties, while more remote and structurally weaker regions exhibit higher exit risks. The findings indicate that counterurban migration frequently takes the form of selective settlement in commuting-accessible areas rather than deep rural retention. Overall, the results highlight patterns of regional fit and selective retention across migrant sub-groups and destination types, contributing to a&#xa0;more nuanced understanding of counterurban migration and its role in regional population redistribution.</p>

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Counterurban Stayers of Sweden: A Survival Analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月20日

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  • Sarper Neyse

摘要

Contemporary literature underscores the demographic and economic stagnation of non-urban areas, driven by ongoing urbanization and the associated outflow of human capital. Although counterurban migration has long been proposed as a potential remedy, empirical evidence on its long-term consequences remains limited, particularly with respect to individuals who remain in these areas over time. This study examines post-migration staying among individuals who moved from metropolitan to non-metropolitan regions in Sweden between 2006 and 2010, analysing the determinants of staying duration over a ten-year follow-up period using administrative register data. Employing survival models, the analysis reveals substantial variation in staying duration across regional contexts and migrant sub-groups. Longer residential stability is more strongly associated with proximity to metropolitan labour markets, family-related characteristics, and prior regional ties, while more remote and structurally weaker regions exhibit higher exit risks. The findings indicate that counterurban migration frequently takes the form of selective settlement in commuting-accessible areas rather than deep rural retention. Overall, the results highlight patterns of regional fit and selective retention across migrant sub-groups and destination types, contributing to a more nuanced understanding of counterurban migration and its role in regional population redistribution.