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<p>As the global shipping industry expands, severe maritime accidents such as collisions, strandings, and capsizing remain a critical concern. Because unpredictable waves are a primary catalyst for these incidents, providing navigators with accurate wave field forecasts is essential for ensuring operational safety. This study proposes a predictive framework to evaluate ship navigation safety under forecasted wave conditions. Specifically, the WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) model, driven by wind data from the Global Forecast System (GFS), was utilized to calculate wave parameters for a target sea area. These forecasted parameters were subsequently integrated into a mathematical ship motion model to dynamically assess the maneuverability and seakeeping of an S-175 container ship. The results demonstrate that: (1) the WW3+GFS model provides highly reliable wave predictions, validated by a strong correlation with buoy observation data. (2) While the ship’s overall maneuvering performance under anticipated waves meets standard operational requirements, its notably large tactical diameter during turning indicates limited collision avoidance capabilities, warranting navigational caution. (3) By analyzing the maximum roll angles under various combinations of speeds and rudder angles, this framework offers actionable guidance for navigators to optimize operational parameters and ensure pre-voyage safety.</p>

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Determine the navigation safety of the S-175 ship using predicted wave parameters

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月17日

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  • Hongyu Li,
  • Yuhang Yang,
  • Yu Zhang,
  • Weizhuang Ma,
  • Qunhong Tian,
  • Aicheng Xiong,
  • Qingshan Gao,
  • Jun Yuan,
  • Wei Zhang,
  • Guoqing Wang,
  • Shaobo Yang

摘要

As the global shipping industry expands, severe maritime accidents such as collisions, strandings, and capsizing remain a critical concern. Because unpredictable waves are a primary catalyst for these incidents, providing navigators with accurate wave field forecasts is essential for ensuring operational safety. This study proposes a predictive framework to evaluate ship navigation safety under forecasted wave conditions. Specifically, the WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) model, driven by wind data from the Global Forecast System (GFS), was utilized to calculate wave parameters for a target sea area. These forecasted parameters were subsequently integrated into a mathematical ship motion model to dynamically assess the maneuverability and seakeeping of an S-175 container ship. The results demonstrate that: (1) the WW3+GFS model provides highly reliable wave predictions, validated by a strong correlation with buoy observation data. (2) While the ship’s overall maneuvering performance under anticipated waves meets standard operational requirements, its notably large tactical diameter during turning indicates limited collision avoidance capabilities, warranting navigational caution. (3) By analyzing the maximum roll angles under various combinations of speeds and rudder angles, this framework offers actionable guidance for navigators to optimize operational parameters and ensure pre-voyage safety.