Emerging technology forecasting for the VHF data exchange system in maritime wireless communication
摘要
The VHF Data Exchange System (VDES) is emerging as a critical standard in maritime communication to overcome the capacity and protocol limitations of the legacy Automatic Identification System (AIS). As VDES enters a pivotal phase of international standardization, identifying strategic R&D priorities and undeveloped technological areas is essential. This study proposes a systematic forecasting framework by integrating Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM) to analyze the VDES patent landscape. Through LDA, we identified four primary technological domains of VDES: (1) cloud and edge computing-based traffic management system, (2) satellite–terrestrial interconnected bidirectional wireless communication network, (3) high-reliability encryption-based security system, and (4) bidirectional communication system through data modulation module. Subsequent GTM analysis identifies technological vacuums specifically within the cloud and edge computing-based traffic management system and the bidirectional communication system through data modulation module. Our findings show that connectivity and security frameworks are relatively mature while intelligence-centric operational optimization remains underexplored. This study provides empirical evidence to guide future R&D directions in maritime data exchange systems.