Bundesweite Entwicklung der Grundwasserstände seit 1991: Langzeittrends, Variabilität und Auswirkungen der jüngsten Trockenphase
摘要
This study provides a comprehensive assessment of groundwater level dynamics in Germany based on observations from 5844 monitoring sites and their response to climatological drivers between 1991 and 2020. The period since 2018 is analysed in the context of exceptional drought conditions to assess the response capacity and vulnerability of groundwater systems to extreme climatic conditions. This assessment represents the first nationwide groundwater level analysis based on a joint evaluation with the relevant state authorities.
Significant trends are identified at 43% of the monitoring sites, predominantly showing declining groundwater levels with a median decrease of 0.9 cm per year. This corresponds to a median annual decline of 0.5%, expressed relative to the groundwater level range at each monitoring site. These trends occur across Germany but vary regionally in magnitude and are primarily climate-driven. To capture differences in system response, the monitoring sites are grouped into four dynamic classes based on their autocorrelation lengths. With decreasing dynamic behaviour, long-term trends become more pronounced within the reference period 1991–2020 (from −0.3% per year in class 1 to −1.16% in class 4), and the persistence of climatic effects becomes more pronounced. Slow-reacting systems respond with delay and remain affected by low groundwater levels for longer time periods (median: 9.8 months), whereas fast-reacting systems experience shorter periods of low groundwater levels (median: 2.2 months) and recover more quickly. Since 2018, around 60% of slow-reacting sites have shown persistently low groundwater levels for five years, and up to 20% reached new minima below the lowest values of the reference period. The findings highlight the close link between climate variability and groundwater dynamics and provide a sound basis for the ongoing assessment of groundwater level evolution in Germany.