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<p>Livestock-relevant humid heat is increasing across coastal India, but spatially explicit evidence remains limited for adaptation planning. We assessed the climatic hazard component of livestock heat stress along 32 districts of the Indian west coast using daily ERA5 reanalysis data at 0.25° resolution for 1994–2024. Daily mean temperature and relative humidity were used to compute the Celsius-form Temperature–Humidity Index (THI) for the April–September high-stress season. District and grid-scale trends were analysed using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests, threshold exceedance metrics, upper-tail percentile indices, multi-day spell analysis and a diagnostic temperature–humidity contribution decomposition. A clear spatial gradient was observed. Gujarat districts showed the highest climatological THI (~ 27–28), with more than two-thirds of days above the moderate stress threshold, whereas the Goa–Karnataka belt remained comparatively cooler. However, THI increased significantly in more than 80% of districts, with the steepest trends in southern Kerala and parts of coastal Maharashtra. Moderate-stress days increased by up to 40–45 days decade⁻¹ in districts such as Alappuzha, indicating a rapid lengthening of the heat-stress season. Extreme humid-heat events also intensified, and ≥ 3-day stress spells became two to five times more frequent in the recent period than in the 1990s. Diagnostic decomposition showed that the upward THI trend was primarily driven by rising air temperature, while relative humidity made a smaller and locally offsetting contribution. The results provide a district-level climatic hazard baseline for livestock heat-stress preparedness. Because animal-level risk also depends on breed, species, housing, ventilation, water access, acclimatization and management, the findings should be interpreted as exposure evidence rather than a complete vulnerability assessment.</p>

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Three decades of livestock-relevant heat stress intensification along the Indian West Coast: a gridded THI trend and temperature-humidity contribution analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月24日

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  • Subhradip Bhattacharjee,
  • R. Solomon Rajkumar,
  • V. Paramesha,
  • Parveen Kumar,
  • Basavareddy,
  • Amitava Panja,
  • Subham Singha,
  • Dipak Dey,
  • Prasanna Pal,
  • Rakesh Kumar,
  • Dinesh Kumar

摘要

Livestock-relevant humid heat is increasing across coastal India, but spatially explicit evidence remains limited for adaptation planning. We assessed the climatic hazard component of livestock heat stress along 32 districts of the Indian west coast using daily ERA5 reanalysis data at 0.25° resolution for 1994–2024. Daily mean temperature and relative humidity were used to compute the Celsius-form Temperature–Humidity Index (THI) for the April–September high-stress season. District and grid-scale trends were analysed using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests, threshold exceedance metrics, upper-tail percentile indices, multi-day spell analysis and a diagnostic temperature–humidity contribution decomposition. A clear spatial gradient was observed. Gujarat districts showed the highest climatological THI (~ 27–28), with more than two-thirds of days above the moderate stress threshold, whereas the Goa–Karnataka belt remained comparatively cooler. However, THI increased significantly in more than 80% of districts, with the steepest trends in southern Kerala and parts of coastal Maharashtra. Moderate-stress days increased by up to 40–45 days decade⁻¹ in districts such as Alappuzha, indicating a rapid lengthening of the heat-stress season. Extreme humid-heat events also intensified, and ≥ 3-day stress spells became two to five times more frequent in the recent period than in the 1990s. Diagnostic decomposition showed that the upward THI trend was primarily driven by rising air temperature, while relative humidity made a smaller and locally offsetting contribution. The results provide a district-level climatic hazard baseline for livestock heat-stress preparedness. Because animal-level risk also depends on breed, species, housing, ventilation, water access, acclimatization and management, the findings should be interpreted as exposure evidence rather than a complete vulnerability assessment.