Characterizing joint meteorological-hydrological drought risk in Western Algeria through multivariate drought indices and probability-based severity analysis
摘要
Drought is a complex hydroclimatic phenomenon whose impacts are amplified when meteorological and hydrological deficits occur simultaneously. This study investigates joint meteorological-hydrological drought risk in Western Algeria using a multivariate framework that integrates precipitation and runoff information. Monthly precipitation and streamflow data from the Wadi Sahouat basin were analyzed over the period 1973–2014. Meteorological and hydrological droughts were characterized using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) at 3-, 6-, and 12-month accumulation timescales. To identify joint meteorological-hydrological drought conditions, a copula-based Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) was employed, allowing the dependence structure between precipitation and runoff to be modelled independently of their marginal distributions. Several copula families were tested, with optimal models selected using information criteria. In addition, the Probability of Drought Severity (PDS) method was applied to quantify the likelihood of moderate, severe, and extreme drought events across indices and timescales. Results reveal strong scale dependence in drought behaviour, with longer accumulation periods highlighting persistent and severe drought episodes. Major droughts during 1982–1985, 1992–1995, and 2003–2009 were consistently identified across indices, while MSDI revealed enhanced severity and longer persistence during joint drought events. PDS analysis show that univariate indices exhibit lower sensitivity to severe and extreme drought conditions compared to MSDI, particularly at longer timescales. The findings emphasize the importance of multivariate approaches for robust drought risk assessment in semi-arid Mediterranean regions and provide valuable insights for water resources planning and drought mitigation strategies in Western Algeria.