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<p>Bangladesh faces recurrent droughts that threaten food security and agricultural sustainability. Previous assessments have relied primarily on single-attribute indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which may inadequately capture drought dynamics in monsoon-dominated climates. This study integrates the Effective Drought Index (EDI) with a composite Drought Hazard Index (DHI) to provide comprehensive spatiotemporal drought hazard analysis across Bangladesh from 1981 to 2018. Using high-resolution precipitation data (5&#xa0;km), we quantify drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity at annual and seasonal scales, focusing on three critical rice cultivation seasons: Aus (April–July), Aman (July–November), and Boro (December–April). Results reveal that 38% of districts consistently fall within high to very high hazard categories annually. The Boro season shows the highest drought hazard (47% of districts), followed by Aus (34%) and Aman (30%). The northwestern Barind Tract and southwestern coastal regions emerge as persistent drought hotspots, while Sylhet and Chattogram Hill Tracts exhibit minimal hazard due to abundant rainfall. This research presents high-resolution (5&#xa0;km) seasonal drought hazard maps for Bangladesh, integrating multiple drought characteristics. Our findings underscore Boro cultivation’s susceptibility to irrigation changes, emphasize improved water management needs, and provide essential insights for climate-resilient agricultural planning aligned with Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100.</p>

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Season-specific drought hazard assessment in monsoon Bangladesh using an EDI-based composite index (1981–2018)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月9日

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  • Mohammad Kamruzzaman,
  • Jaed Hasnat,
  • Nazmul Islam Bhuiyan

摘要

Bangladesh faces recurrent droughts that threaten food security and agricultural sustainability. Previous assessments have relied primarily on single-attribute indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which may inadequately capture drought dynamics in monsoon-dominated climates. This study integrates the Effective Drought Index (EDI) with a composite Drought Hazard Index (DHI) to provide comprehensive spatiotemporal drought hazard analysis across Bangladesh from 1981 to 2018. Using high-resolution precipitation data (5 km), we quantify drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity at annual and seasonal scales, focusing on three critical rice cultivation seasons: Aus (April–July), Aman (July–November), and Boro (December–April). Results reveal that 38% of districts consistently fall within high to very high hazard categories annually. The Boro season shows the highest drought hazard (47% of districts), followed by Aus (34%) and Aman (30%). The northwestern Barind Tract and southwestern coastal regions emerge as persistent drought hotspots, while Sylhet and Chattogram Hill Tracts exhibit minimal hazard due to abundant rainfall. This research presents high-resolution (5 km) seasonal drought hazard maps for Bangladesh, integrating multiple drought characteristics. Our findings underscore Boro cultivation’s susceptibility to irrigation changes, emphasize improved water management needs, and provide essential insights for climate-resilient agricultural planning aligned with Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100.