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<p>Urban flooding increasingly threatens coastal cities worldwide, driven by rapid urbanisation, climate variability, and shifting rainfall patterns. This study analysed daily rainfall records for the period 1974–2023 using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator to evaluate rainfall trends in Panaji, Goa. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves were developed to characterise extreme rainfall events, and peak runoff was estimated using the Rational Method. The results revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in September rainfall (Sen’s slope = 3.67&#xa0;mm/year; <i>p</i> = 0.0309), suggesting changes in late-monsoon rainfall behaviour. Decadal analysis showed increasing annual rainfall and a growing occurrence of extreme one-day rainfall events during recent decades. The developed IDF curves indicated substantial short-duration rainfall intensities across multiple return periods, while runoff estimation yielded a peak discharge of 12.828&#xa0;m³/s for the 2-year return period event, demonstrating the influence of urban land-use characteristics on hydrological response. The findings suggest that urban flood risk is shaped by the combined effects of rainfall variability, urbanisation, and drainage constraints. Nature-based Solutions (NbS), including bioswales, rain gardens, permeable pavements, green roofs, and detention systems, are identified as complementary measures for enhancing urban flood resilience. A key contribution of this study is the integration of rainfall trend analysis, extreme rainfall assessment, runoff estimation, and NbS-based adaptation planning within a single framework for urban flood resilience. The proposed approach provides a basis for climate-responsive urban planning and sustainable flood management in rapidly urbanising coastal cities.</p>

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Integrating rainfall analysis and nature-based solutions for urban flood resilience in Panaji, Goa

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

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  • Ras Bihari Mahato,
  • Alisa Sahu,
  • Dennies Daise Thomas

摘要

Urban flooding increasingly threatens coastal cities worldwide, driven by rapid urbanisation, climate variability, and shifting rainfall patterns. This study analysed daily rainfall records for the period 1974–2023 using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator to evaluate rainfall trends in Panaji, Goa. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves were developed to characterise extreme rainfall events, and peak runoff was estimated using the Rational Method. The results revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in September rainfall (Sen’s slope = 3.67 mm/year; p = 0.0309), suggesting changes in late-monsoon rainfall behaviour. Decadal analysis showed increasing annual rainfall and a growing occurrence of extreme one-day rainfall events during recent decades. The developed IDF curves indicated substantial short-duration rainfall intensities across multiple return periods, while runoff estimation yielded a peak discharge of 12.828 m³/s for the 2-year return period event, demonstrating the influence of urban land-use characteristics on hydrological response. The findings suggest that urban flood risk is shaped by the combined effects of rainfall variability, urbanisation, and drainage constraints. Nature-based Solutions (NbS), including bioswales, rain gardens, permeable pavements, green roofs, and detention systems, are identified as complementary measures for enhancing urban flood resilience. A key contribution of this study is the integration of rainfall trend analysis, extreme rainfall assessment, runoff estimation, and NbS-based adaptation planning within a single framework for urban flood resilience. The proposed approach provides a basis for climate-responsive urban planning and sustainable flood management in rapidly urbanising coastal cities.