Assessing urban climate resilience to extreme heat under climate change: a heat risk index approach for Bursa, Türkiye
摘要
Urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat due to the combined effect of the urban heat island which is exacerbated by global climate change especially in Mediterranean region. This study focuses on developing a Heat Risk Index (HRI) for Bursa, Türkiye’s fourth most populous metropolis, to identify priority zones for tree planting as a climate adaptation measure. The HRI represents current heat exposure; intervention prioritization is a secondary interpretation. The index integrates remotely sensed surface temperature data from Landsat Level-2, tree cover metrics from ESA WorldCover 2021, and population density data from the Turkish Statistical Institute. The HRI was calculated by integrating these variables to pinpoint districts where tree planting would significantly alleviate heat stress. The results demonstrate that districts with the highest population density, such as Nilüfer, Osmangazi, and Yıldırım, would benefit the most from increased tree cover. In contrast, districts with extensive existing vegetation, such as Mudanya and Gemlik, would experience less benefit. In addition, thermal heat storage capacity and thermal emissivity values of building rooftops were computed for each district. This research offers a replicable framework for environmental monitoring and urban climate adaptation, supporting nature-based solutions to enhance urban resilience under future climate scenarios, especially for cities in Mediterranean climates.