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<p>As the center of origin and genetic diversity of <i>Coffea arabica</i> L., Ethiopia plays a critical ecological, economic, and cultural role in global coffee production. The Kafa Biosphere Reserve (KBR), one of the last remaining refugia for wild <i>Coffea arabica</i> is threatened by climate change. This research evaluate the present and projected habitat suitability for <i>Coffea arabica</i> in KBR by employing the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model. Of the 19 bioclimatic variables obtained from WorldClim v2.1, four variables with potential spatial discontinuities (Bio8, Bio9, Bio18, and Bio19) were excluded, and seven variables were subsequently retained following correlation and ecological screening. Future climate scenarios were projected using three CMIP6 models (MPI-ESM1-2-HR, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, EC-Earth3-Veg) across two SSPs (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061–2080, and 2081-2100. The model demonstrated good predictive performance (AUC = 0.803) and high classification accuracy (TSS = 0.841). Temperature (Bio1, Bio5, Bio6) and precipitation (Bio12, Bio17) variables were the dominant drivers of habitat suitability. Ensemble projections revealed a gradual spatial shift of highly suitable zones toward higher elevations, accompanied by expansion of moderately suitable areas during mid-century. Under SSP2-4.5, total suitable habitat (S1-S4) is projected to increase by approximately 16-22% across mid and late century , whereas SSP5-8.5 shows mid and late-century expansion followed by a decline, resulting in a net habitat loss by 2100. Despite increases in total suitable area, highly suitable habitats declined substantially, suggesting that the ideal microclimatic niches may be deteriorating. Based on the findings, the spatial ecology of <i>Coffea arabica</i> in KBR will shift due to climate change. To protect this globally important commodity and its wild gene pool, climate-smart agroforestry, in-situ genetic conservation, and adaptive land-use planning must be implemented.</p>

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Modeling current and future habitat suitability of arabica coffee (Coffea arabica L.) in the Kafa biosphere reserve, southwest Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月20日

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  • Amare Amsalu,
  • Weyessa Garedew,
  • Girma Alemu Melka,
  • Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda

摘要

As the center of origin and genetic diversity of Coffea arabica L., Ethiopia plays a critical ecological, economic, and cultural role in global coffee production. The Kafa Biosphere Reserve (KBR), one of the last remaining refugia for wild Coffea arabica is threatened by climate change. This research evaluate the present and projected habitat suitability for Coffea arabica in KBR by employing the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model. Of the 19 bioclimatic variables obtained from WorldClim v2.1, four variables with potential spatial discontinuities (Bio8, Bio9, Bio18, and Bio19) were excluded, and seven variables were subsequently retained following correlation and ecological screening. Future climate scenarios were projected using three CMIP6 models (MPI-ESM1-2-HR, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, EC-Earth3-Veg) across two SSPs (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061–2080, and 2081-2100. The model demonstrated good predictive performance (AUC = 0.803) and high classification accuracy (TSS = 0.841). Temperature (Bio1, Bio5, Bio6) and precipitation (Bio12, Bio17) variables were the dominant drivers of habitat suitability. Ensemble projections revealed a gradual spatial shift of highly suitable zones toward higher elevations, accompanied by expansion of moderately suitable areas during mid-century. Under SSP2-4.5, total suitable habitat (S1-S4) is projected to increase by approximately 16-22% across mid and late century , whereas SSP5-8.5 shows mid and late-century expansion followed by a decline, resulting in a net habitat loss by 2100. Despite increases in total suitable area, highly suitable habitats declined substantially, suggesting that the ideal microclimatic niches may be deteriorating. Based on the findings, the spatial ecology of Coffea arabica in KBR will shift due to climate change. To protect this globally important commodity and its wild gene pool, climate-smart agroforestry, in-situ genetic conservation, and adaptive land-use planning must be implemented.