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<p>This study quantifies the shifting velocities of precipitation and temperature extremes across India’s agro-climatic zones using the gradient-based climate velocity (VoCC) framework. It represents the velocity as the ratio of temporal climate trends to spatial gradients. Historical (1950–2014) and projected future (2015–2100) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were analyzed using NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 ACCESS-CM2 data. Results reveal strong spatial heterogeneity, with velocity magnitudes ranging from &lt; 1&#xa0;km/y in the Himalayas to &gt; 25&#xa0;km/y across central and western plateaus. Temperature extremes exhibit faster velocities than precipitation, and future trajectories indicate accelerated shifts, particularly under SSP5-8.5. The directional patterns show coherent clusters: northwestern and southwestern displacements dominate temperature fields, while precipitation trajectories are more divergent across eastern and coastal regions. Classification of climatic trajectories demonstrates a transition from convergence to source-dominated regimes, implying intensifying warming and hydrological instability. The amplification of minimum temperature velocities signals enhanced diurnal asymmetry of warming. These findings suggest profound implications for agriculture, ecosystem resilience, and climate adaptation planning, highlighting emerging hotspots in central and semi-arid India that demand urgent intervention for sustainable resource management under a rapidly evolving climate regime.</p>

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Shifting velocities of annual precipitation and temperature across Indian agro-climatic zones – analysis using ACCESS-CM2 projections

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Rakesh Kadaverugu

摘要

This study quantifies the shifting velocities of precipitation and temperature extremes across India’s agro-climatic zones using the gradient-based climate velocity (VoCC) framework. It represents the velocity as the ratio of temporal climate trends to spatial gradients. Historical (1950–2014) and projected future (2015–2100) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were analyzed using NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 ACCESS-CM2 data. Results reveal strong spatial heterogeneity, with velocity magnitudes ranging from < 1 km/y in the Himalayas to > 25 km/y across central and western plateaus. Temperature extremes exhibit faster velocities than precipitation, and future trajectories indicate accelerated shifts, particularly under SSP5-8.5. The directional patterns show coherent clusters: northwestern and southwestern displacements dominate temperature fields, while precipitation trajectories are more divergent across eastern and coastal regions. Classification of climatic trajectories demonstrates a transition from convergence to source-dominated regimes, implying intensifying warming and hydrological instability. The amplification of minimum temperature velocities signals enhanced diurnal asymmetry of warming. These findings suggest profound implications for agriculture, ecosystem resilience, and climate adaptation planning, highlighting emerging hotspots in central and semi-arid India that demand urgent intervention for sustainable resource management under a rapidly evolving climate regime.