<p>Droughts emerge from the aggregated effects of natural and anthropogenic climate variability, mismanagement of water and land resources, posing significant challenges to water planning and management, particularly in densely populated and agriculture-dependent regions like Bihar. An integrated approach is adopted for drought risk study using Multi-Criterion Decision Making models, two drought indices (SPI and PDSI), and multiple datasets viz., crop intensity, gross crop area, groundwater extraction, perennial water resources, forest area, population, cultivators, etc. The Fuzzy AHP is used to quantify the relative weights to each drought-inducing parameter. For Risk analysis, Drought Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability are calculated by applying the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Analysis shows, the districts of Patna, Nalanda, and Buxar are at very-high drought risk, with a drought risk index of 0.80 or higher. Following this, Bhojpur, Bhagalpur, Jamui, and Sheikhpura are in the high-risk category, with index values ranging from 0.50 to 0.79. Together, these high and very high-risk districts impact approximately 53% of the population, posing serious challenges to water resources, agricultural productivity, and overall socio-economic sustainability. The remaining districts in the western and central parts of southern Bihar are classified as moderate risk, covering approximately 46% of the study area and affecting around 38% of the population. Validation using satellite-based NDVI–VCI and ground-based crop yield data confirms the approach’s potency in assessing drought risk and its utility in designing a decision-support system for drought management, aligning with objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals, especially SDG 2 and 15.</p>

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Spatial drought risk index mapping in southern bihar: a fuzzy ahp & topsis approach

  • Anjani Kumari,
  • Anuranjan Harsh,
  • Vikram Kumar,
  • Avinash Kumar Chouhan

摘要

Droughts emerge from the aggregated effects of natural and anthropogenic climate variability, mismanagement of water and land resources, posing significant challenges to water planning and management, particularly in densely populated and agriculture-dependent regions like Bihar. An integrated approach is adopted for drought risk study using Multi-Criterion Decision Making models, two drought indices (SPI and PDSI), and multiple datasets viz., crop intensity, gross crop area, groundwater extraction, perennial water resources, forest area, population, cultivators, etc. The Fuzzy AHP is used to quantify the relative weights to each drought-inducing parameter. For Risk analysis, Drought Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability are calculated by applying the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Analysis shows, the districts of Patna, Nalanda, and Buxar are at very-high drought risk, with a drought risk index of 0.80 or higher. Following this, Bhojpur, Bhagalpur, Jamui, and Sheikhpura are in the high-risk category, with index values ranging from 0.50 to 0.79. Together, these high and very high-risk districts impact approximately 53% of the population, posing serious challenges to water resources, agricultural productivity, and overall socio-economic sustainability. The remaining districts in the western and central parts of southern Bihar are classified as moderate risk, covering approximately 46% of the study area and affecting around 38% of the population. Validation using satellite-based NDVI–VCI and ground-based crop yield data confirms the approach’s potency in assessing drought risk and its utility in designing a decision-support system for drought management, aligning with objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals, especially SDG 2 and 15.