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<p>The North Western Himalayan Region (NWHR), encompassing Jammu &amp; Kashmir including Ladakh (J&amp;K), Himachal Pradesh (HP) and Uttarakhand (UK), exhibits high sensitivity to hydroclimatic variability, with precipitation playing a pivotal role in sustaining water resources and agriculture. This study investigates spatio-temporal fluctuations in annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation utilizing 110 years (1901–2010) data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test revealed significant long-term shifts, while the homogeneity test employs for the detection of change point years, which identifies the annual change point years in precipitation are 1947 (J&amp;K), 1967 (HP), and 1971 (UK) respectively. A decadal evaluation revealed alternating wet and dry periods, with notable deficits during 1901–1910 (J&amp;K), 1931–1940 (HP) and prolonged shortfalls in 1991–2000 (UK). Periodicity analysis using Maximum Entropy Spectral study (MESA) detected dominant cycles of 2.1–2.8 and 3.3–4.2 years, consistent with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven variability. This study also examined the strength and nature of relationship between major large-scale climate indices (NAO, ENSO, IOD, AMO and SOI) and monsoon precipitation across NWHR, emphasizing weak to moderate, non-causal, and regionally heterogenous teleconnection under climate variability. Furthermore, ARIMA-based statistical modelling and CMIP6 scenario projections have utilized to analyze historical variability and future trends in monsoon precipitation across the NWHR, while assessing model adequacy and impacts of bias-correction related to region complex topography. Hence, the present work suggests that precipitation variability is statistically associated with agricultural production variability in the NWHR, highlighting the climate sensitivity of Himalayan agro-ecosystems and the need for climate-resilient water and crop management strategies.</p>

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Integrated spatio-temporal analysis of historical and future projections precipitation variability alongside agricultural production trends in the North Western Himalayan Region

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月28日

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  • Neha,
  • Sanjeev Dwivedi,
  • V. Kumar,
  • Rajkumar Guria,
  • Manoranjan Mishra,
  • S. K. Srivastava

摘要

The North Western Himalayan Region (NWHR), encompassing Jammu & Kashmir including Ladakh (J&K), Himachal Pradesh (HP) and Uttarakhand (UK), exhibits high sensitivity to hydroclimatic variability, with precipitation playing a pivotal role in sustaining water resources and agriculture. This study investigates spatio-temporal fluctuations in annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation utilizing 110 years (1901–2010) data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test revealed significant long-term shifts, while the homogeneity test employs for the detection of change point years, which identifies the annual change point years in precipitation are 1947 (J&K), 1967 (HP), and 1971 (UK) respectively. A decadal evaluation revealed alternating wet and dry periods, with notable deficits during 1901–1910 (J&K), 1931–1940 (HP) and prolonged shortfalls in 1991–2000 (UK). Periodicity analysis using Maximum Entropy Spectral study (MESA) detected dominant cycles of 2.1–2.8 and 3.3–4.2 years, consistent with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven variability. This study also examined the strength and nature of relationship between major large-scale climate indices (NAO, ENSO, IOD, AMO and SOI) and monsoon precipitation across NWHR, emphasizing weak to moderate, non-causal, and regionally heterogenous teleconnection under climate variability. Furthermore, ARIMA-based statistical modelling and CMIP6 scenario projections have utilized to analyze historical variability and future trends in monsoon precipitation across the NWHR, while assessing model adequacy and impacts of bias-correction related to region complex topography. Hence, the present work suggests that precipitation variability is statistically associated with agricultural production variability in the NWHR, highlighting the climate sensitivity of Himalayan agro-ecosystems and the need for climate-resilient water and crop management strategies.