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<p>Green development is a defining feature of Chinese modernization. Under increasingly complex development conditions and rising climate-related uncertainties and shocks, county-level green development faces not only pressure from ecological constraints and low-carbon transition requirements, but also the need to strengthen <i>climate resilience</i> in production systems, infrastructure, resource use, and livelihoods. Against this backdrop, New Quality Productive Forces (NQPF), characterized by innovation-driven growth, digital and intelligent upgrading, and more efficient factor organization, can provide both <i>green transformation momentum</i> and <i>adaptive capacity</i> for county economies. Using China’s county-level panel data from 2011 to 2024, this paper empirically examines whether and how NQPF promotes high-quality green development while enhancing climate-resilient development capacity. The results show that: first, NQPF significantly promote high-quality green development at the county level, implying a stronger capability to sustain growth under tighter carbon and environmental constraints; second, mechanism tests indicate that NQPF work primarily through three channels industrial structure upgrading, factor allocation optimization, and whole-chain talent support (introduction, cultivation, utilization, and retention) which jointly strengthen counties’ abilities to reduce resource and energy intensity, improve disaster-response efficiency, and enhance adaptive governance capacity; third, heterogeneity analysis reveals clear regional differences, with the promotion effect decreasing in the order of eastern, northeastern, and central counties, while the effect in western counties is not significant, suggesting uneven foundations for climate-adaptive innovation, infrastructure, and factor mobility. This study provides empirical evidence and policy implications for cultivating county-level NQPF to accelerate green and low-carbon transition and to build climate-resilient pathways that support coordinated urban–rural development.</p>

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New quality productive forces, green transformation, and climate resilience: mechanisms and evidence from China’s county-level panel data

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月1日

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  • Mingchang Peng,
  • Zhi Cao

摘要

Green development is a defining feature of Chinese modernization. Under increasingly complex development conditions and rising climate-related uncertainties and shocks, county-level green development faces not only pressure from ecological constraints and low-carbon transition requirements, but also the need to strengthen climate resilience in production systems, infrastructure, resource use, and livelihoods. Against this backdrop, New Quality Productive Forces (NQPF), characterized by innovation-driven growth, digital and intelligent upgrading, and more efficient factor organization, can provide both green transformation momentum and adaptive capacity for county economies. Using China’s county-level panel data from 2011 to 2024, this paper empirically examines whether and how NQPF promotes high-quality green development while enhancing climate-resilient development capacity. The results show that: first, NQPF significantly promote high-quality green development at the county level, implying a stronger capability to sustain growth under tighter carbon and environmental constraints; second, mechanism tests indicate that NQPF work primarily through three channels industrial structure upgrading, factor allocation optimization, and whole-chain talent support (introduction, cultivation, utilization, and retention) which jointly strengthen counties’ abilities to reduce resource and energy intensity, improve disaster-response efficiency, and enhance adaptive governance capacity; third, heterogeneity analysis reveals clear regional differences, with the promotion effect decreasing in the order of eastern, northeastern, and central counties, while the effect in western counties is not significant, suggesting uneven foundations for climate-adaptive innovation, infrastructure, and factor mobility. This study provides empirical evidence and policy implications for cultivating county-level NQPF to accelerate green and low-carbon transition and to build climate-resilient pathways that support coordinated urban–rural development.