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<p>Understanding the drivers of surface solar radiation (SSR) trends is critical for solar energy planning in regions like Iran, which faces complex interactions of clouds, aerosols, and climate change. While global dimming and brightening have been extensively studied, a quantitative attribution of these trends to clouds versus aerosols has been lacking in Iran. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal trends of SSR over Iran from 2004 to 2023 using ERA5 reanalysis data and introduces a framework to quantify the separate contributions of cloud cover and aerosols by comparing clear-sky radiation (which includes aerosol attenuation) and all-sky radiation. Results reveal a pronounced north-south dichotomy: significant dimming in the south and southeast (-0.1 kWh/m<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(^{2}\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>/day per decade) contrasts with strong brightening in the north, particularly along the Caspian coast (+0.25 kWh/m<InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(^{2}\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>/day per decade). Quantitative attribution shows that changes in cloud cover are the dominant driver, accounting for 60%–75% of the observed trend variability, while aerosols play a secondary but regionally reinforcing role. These findings highlight that the net impact of global warming on SSR is mediated through regional atmospheric dynamics. They provide a scientific basis for developing distinct solar energy strategies across Iran, emphasizing risk management in the dimming south and harnessing new potential in the brightening north.</p>

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Spatiotemporal trends of surface solar radiation over Iran (2004-2023): Quantifying the impacts of clouds and aerosols

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月22日

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  • Khabat Ghamari,
  • A. A. Bidokhti,
  • S. Sabetghadam

摘要

Understanding the drivers of surface solar radiation (SSR) trends is critical for solar energy planning in regions like Iran, which faces complex interactions of clouds, aerosols, and climate change. While global dimming and brightening have been extensively studied, a quantitative attribution of these trends to clouds versus aerosols has been lacking in Iran. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal trends of SSR over Iran from 2004 to 2023 using ERA5 reanalysis data and introduces a framework to quantify the separate contributions of cloud cover and aerosols by comparing clear-sky radiation (which includes aerosol attenuation) and all-sky radiation. Results reveal a pronounced north-south dichotomy: significant dimming in the south and southeast (-0.1 kWh/m \(^{2}\) /day per decade) contrasts with strong brightening in the north, particularly along the Caspian coast (+0.25 kWh/m \(^{2}\) /day per decade). Quantitative attribution shows that changes in cloud cover are the dominant driver, accounting for 60%–75% of the observed trend variability, while aerosols play a secondary but regionally reinforcing role. These findings highlight that the net impact of global warming on SSR is mediated through regional atmospheric dynamics. They provide a scientific basis for developing distinct solar energy strategies across Iran, emphasizing risk management in the dimming south and harnessing new potential in the brightening north.