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<p>This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) throughout the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) basins, adressing the crucial aspects of thermal discomfort that substantially affect human health, well-being, and work productivity. Thermal stress, induced by increasing temperature and humidity, poses significant public healthy risks, especially in highly populated and climatically vulnerable areas of the Himalayas. The UTCI provides comprehensive assessment of ambient thermal stress conditions by including climatic factors like air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and radiation. Monthly, seasonal, and annual varations and trends in UTCI were studied using ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data from 2000 to 2024. The findings indicate a statistically accelerated warming trend in the IGB region, characterised by different seasonal patterns and geographical variability. Notabally, significantly elevated UTCI trends (+ 1.00 to + 2.00&#xa0;°C/decade) are evident in the Ganges basin, reflecting pronounced warming (MK <i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) trends in the densely populated regions (390 persons/km²) of the IGB basins. UTCI category threshold indicate elevated heat stress conditions, additionally, UTCI based elevation regression analysis within the IGB basins revealed a substantial negative correlation (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.94), with the lowlands of the Ganges basin experiencing the most heat stress. This highlights greater susceptibility in low-elevation, densely populated areas, particularly during the monsoon (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.94) and pre-monsoon seasons (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.92). There is a clear regional variability, with UTCI values gradually rising from the northeastern Himalayan areas to the southwestern alluvial zones, suggesting a directed increase in thermal stress throughout the IGB basin.</p>

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Thermal stress across the Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra basins: UTCI-based trends analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月19日

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  • Zeba Khanam,
  • Akanksha Sharma,
  • Pyarimohan Maharana,
  • Suraj Mal

摘要

This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) throughout the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) basins, adressing the crucial aspects of thermal discomfort that substantially affect human health, well-being, and work productivity. Thermal stress, induced by increasing temperature and humidity, poses significant public healthy risks, especially in highly populated and climatically vulnerable areas of the Himalayas. The UTCI provides comprehensive assessment of ambient thermal stress conditions by including climatic factors like air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and radiation. Monthly, seasonal, and annual varations and trends in UTCI were studied using ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data from 2000 to 2024. The findings indicate a statistically accelerated warming trend in the IGB region, characterised by different seasonal patterns and geographical variability. Notabally, significantly elevated UTCI trends (+ 1.00 to + 2.00 °C/decade) are evident in the Ganges basin, reflecting pronounced warming (MK p < 0.05) trends in the densely populated regions (390 persons/km²) of the IGB basins. UTCI category threshold indicate elevated heat stress conditions, additionally, UTCI based elevation regression analysis within the IGB basins revealed a substantial negative correlation (R2 = 0.94), with the lowlands of the Ganges basin experiencing the most heat stress. This highlights greater susceptibility in low-elevation, densely populated areas, particularly during the monsoon (R2 = 0.94) and pre-monsoon seasons (R2 = 0.92). There is a clear regional variability, with UTCI values gradually rising from the northeastern Himalayan areas to the southwestern alluvial zones, suggesting a directed increase in thermal stress throughout the IGB basin.