Assessing climate-induced agricultural vulnerabilities: a case study from Punjab, Pakistan
摘要
Global food security is at risk due to climate change. The agriculture sector in the arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries is severely impacted by climate change. There has been a notable reduction in the yields of Pakistan’s staple crops—wheat and rice—which are the primary sources of income for millions of farmers. To develop a climate-resilient farming system, it is crucial to consider the vulnerabilities within the agricultural sector. Therefore, the current study aims to assess the vulnerability of wheat- and rice-growing communities in the metropolitan area of Sheikhupura, a district in Punjab, Pakistan. The Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) was calculated for three tehsils in Sheikhupura District, which are major producers of wheat and rice. The CCVI analysis revealed that farmers are vulnerable to climate change (CCVI 0.65). Farmers demonstrated a high degree of exposure (0.61) and sensitivity (0.52) to climate variability, while their adaptive capacity was relatively low (0.45). Additionally, the vulnerability analysis across different regions indicated that the farming community in Ferozwala was most vulnerable (0.85), followed by Muridke (0.64) and Sharaqpur (0.44). These findings suggest that despite differences in farm performance, targeted regional strategies are necessary to prevent production losses.