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<p>India’s diverse geography coupled with its socio-economic dependence on climate sensitive sectors, exacerbates its vulnerability to climate change. Kerala faces increasing variability in precipitation patterns, including intensified extreme rainfall events and prolonged droughts. This study presents a comprehensive, multi-dimensional assessment of historical and future precipitation extremes over Kerala, India, by integrating observed Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) with bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCMs) climate projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Daily gridded rainfall data (1996–2020) are used as the observational baseline, with future projections analysed for the near future (2026–2050) and mid future (2051–2075) during the monsoon seasons. Magnitude and intensity-based ETCCDI are analysed using the Modified Mann–Kendall framework, while duration and frequency-based ETCCDI are examined through spatial variability analysis. An integrated severity-based approach is employed to identify extreme precipitation hotspots and persistent hotspots across indices, scenarios and time periods. The results indicate a fundamental reorganisation of Kerala’s precipitation regime under climate change, characterised by intensified short-duration extremes, increasing rainfall intermittency and spatially coherent hazard patterns rather than uniform increases in annual rainfall. Persistent hotspots are consistently identified along the Western Coastal Kerala, Central Kerala midlands and the Eastern Highlands, emerging as structurally vulnerable regions. Several hotspot locations coincide with areas severely impacted during the 2018–2019 flood and landslide disasters, providing empirical validation of the framework. The findings highlight increasing compound flood and landslide risk driven by stronger extremes and disrupted rainfall persistence. The proposed trend–severity–hotspot framework provides actionable scientific evidence to support Sustainable Development Goals 13.1 and 13.2 on climate resilience and adaptation and SDGs 11.5 and 11.B on disaster risk reduction and climate-informed regional planning in monsoon-dominated regions.</p>

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Emergence of persistent precipitation extremes: a hotspot analysis of Kerala, India, using CMIP6 and ETCCDI indices

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月2日

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  • Shilpa M Athithottam,
  • Ramesh H

摘要

India’s diverse geography coupled with its socio-economic dependence on climate sensitive sectors, exacerbates its vulnerability to climate change. Kerala faces increasing variability in precipitation patterns, including intensified extreme rainfall events and prolonged droughts. This study presents a comprehensive, multi-dimensional assessment of historical and future precipitation extremes over Kerala, India, by integrating observed Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) with bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCMs) climate projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Daily gridded rainfall data (1996–2020) are used as the observational baseline, with future projections analysed for the near future (2026–2050) and mid future (2051–2075) during the monsoon seasons. Magnitude and intensity-based ETCCDI are analysed using the Modified Mann–Kendall framework, while duration and frequency-based ETCCDI are examined through spatial variability analysis. An integrated severity-based approach is employed to identify extreme precipitation hotspots and persistent hotspots across indices, scenarios and time periods. The results indicate a fundamental reorganisation of Kerala’s precipitation regime under climate change, characterised by intensified short-duration extremes, increasing rainfall intermittency and spatially coherent hazard patterns rather than uniform increases in annual rainfall. Persistent hotspots are consistently identified along the Western Coastal Kerala, Central Kerala midlands and the Eastern Highlands, emerging as structurally vulnerable regions. Several hotspot locations coincide with areas severely impacted during the 2018–2019 flood and landslide disasters, providing empirical validation of the framework. The findings highlight increasing compound flood and landslide risk driven by stronger extremes and disrupted rainfall persistence. The proposed trend–severity–hotspot framework provides actionable scientific evidence to support Sustainable Development Goals 13.1 and 13.2 on climate resilience and adaptation and SDGs 11.5 and 11.B on disaster risk reduction and climate-informed regional planning in monsoon-dominated regions.