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<p>This study evaluates the effects of climate change on drought severity in the Kabul River Basin of Afghanistan, which is highly vulnerable due to its arid and semi-arid climate. An integrated approach utilizing remote sensing (RS), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and multi-criteria decision analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was applied for analyzing environmental datasets, including Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation, soil moisture, and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), along with drought indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalized Drought Difference Index (NDDI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Soil Moisture Index (SMI). Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test to analyze the trend (1981–2025) indicates a significant rising of temperature (+ 0.024&#xa0;°C/year) and (1950–2025), with continually low precipitation. The result of the study shows that severe drought has affected the 52% of the river basin, while 26% falls under very high and 26% under high drought risk zones. The result highlights the urgent need for adaptive strategies such as efficient irrigation, rainwater harvesting, reforestation, and early warning systems to enhance the resilience of those zones that are in water-scarce zones due to climate change.</p>

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How climate variability influences drought severity in the Kabul River Basin: insights from remote sensing and GIS

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月15日

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  • Nazifullah Rawan,
  • Ali Reza Noori,
  • Wahidullah Baryal,
  • Sefatullah Ahmadi,
  • Muhammad Esmaeel Suroosh

摘要

This study evaluates the effects of climate change on drought severity in the Kabul River Basin of Afghanistan, which is highly vulnerable due to its arid and semi-arid climate. An integrated approach utilizing remote sensing (RS), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and multi-criteria decision analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was applied for analyzing environmental datasets, including Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation, soil moisture, and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), along with drought indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalized Drought Difference Index (NDDI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Soil Moisture Index (SMI). Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test to analyze the trend (1981–2025) indicates a significant rising of temperature (+ 0.024 °C/year) and (1950–2025), with continually low precipitation. The result of the study shows that severe drought has affected the 52% of the river basin, while 26% falls under very high and 26% under high drought risk zones. The result highlights the urgent need for adaptive strategies such as efficient irrigation, rainwater harvesting, reforestation, and early warning systems to enhance the resilience of those zones that are in water-scarce zones due to climate change.