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<p>Hydro-climatic extremes driven by anthropogenic climate change are reshaping monsoon-dependent agricultural systems across South Asia, yet regional-scale diagnostics remain limited. Here, we present a long-term assessment of the dynamics of dry spells and rainfall intensity across Punjab, a highly productive agrarian region in India. The study used daily rainfall datasets from high-resolution IMD (India Meteorological Department) gridded observations (1901–2020) and projections from the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 global climate model (2025–2095) under four climatic scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Historical records show spatially heterogeneous but statistically non-significant trends in both moderate (10–20&#xa0;days) and extended (&gt; 20&#xa0;days) dry spells, as well as in rainfall events. However, future projections under mid- to high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 to RCP8.5) reveal a shift toward more frequent moderate dry spells and fewer high-intensity rainfall events, indicating a more erratic rainfall pattern dominated by low- to moderate-intensity events. These evolving patterns threaten groundwater-dependent irrigation systems, crop reliability, and long-term food security in one of India’s most climate-sensitive regions. Our findings underscore the need to develop locally tailored adaptation strategies that integrate intra-seasonal rainfall variability, land-use feedbacks, and regional hydrological risks in response to accelerating climate change.</p>

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Observed (1901–2020) and projected (2025–2095) changes in dry spells and rainfall extremes under irrigation-induced heterogeneity in Punjab, India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月21日

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  • Agatambidi Bala Krishna,
  • Prabhjyot-Kaur,
  • Sandeep Singh Sandhu

摘要

Hydro-climatic extremes driven by anthropogenic climate change are reshaping monsoon-dependent agricultural systems across South Asia, yet regional-scale diagnostics remain limited. Here, we present a long-term assessment of the dynamics of dry spells and rainfall intensity across Punjab, a highly productive agrarian region in India. The study used daily rainfall datasets from high-resolution IMD (India Meteorological Department) gridded observations (1901–2020) and projections from the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 global climate model (2025–2095) under four climatic scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Historical records show spatially heterogeneous but statistically non-significant trends in both moderate (10–20 days) and extended (> 20 days) dry spells, as well as in rainfall events. However, future projections under mid- to high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 to RCP8.5) reveal a shift toward more frequent moderate dry spells and fewer high-intensity rainfall events, indicating a more erratic rainfall pattern dominated by low- to moderate-intensity events. These evolving patterns threaten groundwater-dependent irrigation systems, crop reliability, and long-term food security in one of India’s most climate-sensitive regions. Our findings underscore the need to develop locally tailored adaptation strategies that integrate intra-seasonal rainfall variability, land-use feedbacks, and regional hydrological risks in response to accelerating climate change.