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<p>Rapid and unplanned urban expansion across sub-Saharan Africa has intensified landscape degradation and surface warming; however, long-term integrated assessments linking land use/land cover (LULC) change, vegetation dynamics, and land surface temperature (LST) remain limited. Addressing this gap, this study analyses land-use/land-cover (LULC) dynamics and their thermal implications in the Accra Metropolitan Area (AMA) from 2000 to 2020, with projections to 2050. Using Landsat imagery within an integrated analytical framework, we combined a random forest classifier for historical LULC mapping, the MOLUSCE CA–ANN model for future scenario simulation, and Geo-detector and K-means clustering to quantify drivers and spatial patterns of thermal variation. Results indicate substantial landscape restructuring: vegetation cover declined from 35.7% in 2000 to 22.7% in 2020 and is projected to decrease to approximately 10.2% by 2050. Concurrently, built-up areas expanded from 62.5% to 75.6%, with projections suggesting continued growth under a business-as-usual scenario. These transitions have substantially increased land surface temperature (LST), as evidenced by a strong negative correlation between NDVI and LST (<i>r</i> = − 0.9) and a positive correlation between NDBI and LST (<i>r</i> = 0.8). Spatial analysis identified built-up expansion as the dominant driver of surface warming, with intensifying urban heat island effects concentrated in central and southern AMA. By integrating long-term forecasting with a mechanistic assessment of land-cover change and surface energy dynamics, this study provides actionable evidence for targeted mitigation. Without urgent policy intervention, AMA faces escalating ecological and climatic risks. The findings offer a robust scientific basis for green infrastructure planning and sustainable urban management, aligned with SDGs 11, 13, and 15 in Accra and other rapidly urbanized contexts.</p>

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Urban vegetation loss: assessing built-up expansion and its implications on vegetation cover’s health and land surface temperature in the Accra Metropolitan Area, Ghana

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月18日

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  • Michael Batame,
  • Emmanuel Yeboah,
  • Elisha Njomaba,
  • Isaac Sarfo,
  • Selasi Klutsey,
  • Oznur Isinkaralar,
  • Muhammad Waseem,
  • Ali Hasan Jaffry,
  • Kaan Isinkaralar,
  • Henry Adjanor Tetteh,
  • Paul Kyeku,
  • Ishmeal Quist,
  • Vincent Awuku,
  • Kaleem Ullah,
  • Augustine O. K. N. Mensah

摘要

Rapid and unplanned urban expansion across sub-Saharan Africa has intensified landscape degradation and surface warming; however, long-term integrated assessments linking land use/land cover (LULC) change, vegetation dynamics, and land surface temperature (LST) remain limited. Addressing this gap, this study analyses land-use/land-cover (LULC) dynamics and their thermal implications in the Accra Metropolitan Area (AMA) from 2000 to 2020, with projections to 2050. Using Landsat imagery within an integrated analytical framework, we combined a random forest classifier for historical LULC mapping, the MOLUSCE CA–ANN model for future scenario simulation, and Geo-detector and K-means clustering to quantify drivers and spatial patterns of thermal variation. Results indicate substantial landscape restructuring: vegetation cover declined from 35.7% in 2000 to 22.7% in 2020 and is projected to decrease to approximately 10.2% by 2050. Concurrently, built-up areas expanded from 62.5% to 75.6%, with projections suggesting continued growth under a business-as-usual scenario. These transitions have substantially increased land surface temperature (LST), as evidenced by a strong negative correlation between NDVI and LST (r = − 0.9) and a positive correlation between NDBI and LST (r = 0.8). Spatial analysis identified built-up expansion as the dominant driver of surface warming, with intensifying urban heat island effects concentrated in central and southern AMA. By integrating long-term forecasting with a mechanistic assessment of land-cover change and surface energy dynamics, this study provides actionable evidence for targeted mitigation. Without urgent policy intervention, AMA faces escalating ecological and climatic risks. The findings offer a robust scientific basis for green infrastructure planning and sustainable urban management, aligned with SDGs 11, 13, and 15 in Accra and other rapidly urbanized contexts.