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<p>Climate variability poses substantial risks to rainfed smallholder agriculture in northern Ethiopia. This study evaluated historical rainfall and temperature trends and their relationship with wheat yield in the Endamehoni District of Southern Tigray. In-situ meteorological records (1983–2025) were integrated with satellite-derived rainfall data from CHIRPS, GPCP, and MSWEP. Statistical analyses included filling-in missing station rainfall, homogeneity testing, and bias correction. Climate trend and variability analyses were performed using autocorrelation, modified Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimation, coefficient of variation, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Additionally, the correlation between seasonal rainfall and wheat yield (2017–2024) was assessed using Pearson’s correlation and R². Results showed a slight, statistically non-significant increase in annual rainfall (Sen’s slope: +1.69&#xa0;mm yr⁻¹), with low interannual variability (CV = 15.35%), indicating relatively stable rainfall totals. In contrast, seasonal rainfall (Kiremt and Bega), as well as mean maximum, mean minimum, and mean temperatures, increased significantly (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). Despite stable annual rainfall, wheat yield exhibited a strong negative correlation with total June–November rainfall (<i>r</i> ≈ − 0.70), particularly during the Kiremt season (<i>r</i> ≈ − 0.75), and a moderate negative association with Bega rainfall (<i>r</i> ≈ − 0.48). These findings suggest a nonlinear rainfall–yield relationship in which seasonal excess rainfall reduces productivity. Overall, agricultural vulnerability in this semi-arid highland system is driven more by rainfall distribution, seasonal concentration, and rising temperatures than by declining annual rainfall. Integrating satellite climate products with local yield data provides context-specific evidence to guide climate-resilient wheat production and strengthen climate-informed agronomic and natural resource management practices.</p>

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Assessing historical trend of climate change and variability in a wheat-growing rainfed agriculture in a semi-arid environment: Endamehoni District, Southern Tigray, Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月20日

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  • Assefa Shiferaw,
  • Daniel Teka,
  • Melaku Berhe

摘要

Climate variability poses substantial risks to rainfed smallholder agriculture in northern Ethiopia. This study evaluated historical rainfall and temperature trends and their relationship with wheat yield in the Endamehoni District of Southern Tigray. In-situ meteorological records (1983–2025) were integrated with satellite-derived rainfall data from CHIRPS, GPCP, and MSWEP. Statistical analyses included filling-in missing station rainfall, homogeneity testing, and bias correction. Climate trend and variability analyses were performed using autocorrelation, modified Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimation, coefficient of variation, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Additionally, the correlation between seasonal rainfall and wheat yield (2017–2024) was assessed using Pearson’s correlation and R². Results showed a slight, statistically non-significant increase in annual rainfall (Sen’s slope: +1.69 mm yr⁻¹), with low interannual variability (CV = 15.35%), indicating relatively stable rainfall totals. In contrast, seasonal rainfall (Kiremt and Bega), as well as mean maximum, mean minimum, and mean temperatures, increased significantly (p < 0.05). Despite stable annual rainfall, wheat yield exhibited a strong negative correlation with total June–November rainfall (r ≈ − 0.70), particularly during the Kiremt season (r ≈ − 0.75), and a moderate negative association with Bega rainfall (r ≈ − 0.48). These findings suggest a nonlinear rainfall–yield relationship in which seasonal excess rainfall reduces productivity. Overall, agricultural vulnerability in this semi-arid highland system is driven more by rainfall distribution, seasonal concentration, and rising temperatures than by declining annual rainfall. Integrating satellite climate products with local yield data provides context-specific evidence to guide climate-resilient wheat production and strengthen climate-informed agronomic and natural resource management practices.