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<p>Tropical cyclone impacts extend beyond landfall through prolonged proximity effects, particularly in regions exposed to inland-propagating storms. This study develops a proximity-based framework to quantify cyclone exposure duration across South India and examines its modulation by decadal variability and large-scale climate modes. Storm instances were reconstructed to quantify exposure duration at state and district scales. Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu experience approximately 3–7 times greater cumulative cyclone exposure than inland Karnataka and Kerala. Results show strong spatial asymmetry, with Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu experiencing consistently higher exposure than Karnataka and Kerala. Decadal clustering is apparent, particularly during the 1990s, but no monotonic long-term trend is detected. ENSO-related modulation of exposure is detectable but statistically modest along the Bay of Bengal coast, while IOD effects are weak and sample-limited. For Karnataka, ENSO sensitivity arises primarily from increased storm persistence rather than frequency.</p>

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Decadal variability and climate-mode modulation of cyclone proximity exposure over South India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月18日

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  • Srinivasa Sasdhar Ponnaluru

摘要

Tropical cyclone impacts extend beyond landfall through prolonged proximity effects, particularly in regions exposed to inland-propagating storms. This study develops a proximity-based framework to quantify cyclone exposure duration across South India and examines its modulation by decadal variability and large-scale climate modes. Storm instances were reconstructed to quantify exposure duration at state and district scales. Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu experience approximately 3–7 times greater cumulative cyclone exposure than inland Karnataka and Kerala. Results show strong spatial asymmetry, with Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu experiencing consistently higher exposure than Karnataka and Kerala. Decadal clustering is apparent, particularly during the 1990s, but no monotonic long-term trend is detected. ENSO-related modulation of exposure is detectable but statistically modest along the Bay of Bengal coast, while IOD effects are weak and sample-limited. For Karnataka, ENSO sensitivity arises primarily from increased storm persistence rather than frequency.