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<p>In 2025, North China experienced its most extreme rainy season on record: it lasted 59 days and saw 356.5&#xa0;mm cumulative precipitation, which were nearly twice and 2.6 times the climatological average respectively, with both breaking records. The core driver was the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) with a rare “early northward jump-full season northward positioning” feature, providing stable conditions for persistent heavy rainfall. Analysis reveals the anomalous WPSH resulted from multi-scale climate system synergy: long-term WPSH intensification under global warming laid the foundation; the strongest negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation and positive North Atlantic Oscillation enhanced the East Asian Summer Monsoon in June–July, promoting the early northward jump of the WPSH; the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation staying in Phases 7–8 in July strengthened WPSH stability and water vapor transport; meanwhile, the intensified Northeast China Cold Vortex from mid-to-high latitude locked the WPSH’s northward position via circulation synergy effects.</p>

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The 2025 longest rainy season and greatest precipitation in North China: features and the dominant influencing factors

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月29日

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  • Tiejun Xie,
  • Hongbo Shi,
  • Hui Gao,
  • Ting Ding

摘要

In 2025, North China experienced its most extreme rainy season on record: it lasted 59 days and saw 356.5 mm cumulative precipitation, which were nearly twice and 2.6 times the climatological average respectively, with both breaking records. The core driver was the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) with a rare “early northward jump-full season northward positioning” feature, providing stable conditions for persistent heavy rainfall. Analysis reveals the anomalous WPSH resulted from multi-scale climate system synergy: long-term WPSH intensification under global warming laid the foundation; the strongest negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation and positive North Atlantic Oscillation enhanced the East Asian Summer Monsoon in June–July, promoting the early northward jump of the WPSH; the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation staying in Phases 7–8 in July strengthened WPSH stability and water vapor transport; meanwhile, the intensified Northeast China Cold Vortex from mid-to-high latitude locked the WPSH’s northward position via circulation synergy effects.