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<p>This study assesses extreme climate conditions in Tripoli, Libya, by modeling return levels of temperature, relative humidity, and humidex using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Motivated by limited research on combined heat and humidity extremes in the Mediterranean region, the analysis uses 52&#xa0;years of hourly meteorological data recorded at Tripoli International Airport. Missing data were addressed through multiple imputation, followed by application of the block maxima method to extract annual maxima. Diagnostic plots confirmed the adequacy and robustness of GEV model fitting. Results indicate that monthly mean maximum temperatures increase from 28.9&#xa0;°C (2-year return) to 33.8&#xa0;°C (350-year return). Relative humidity extremes rise slightly from 78% to 81.1%, while humidex values increase from 36&#xa0;°C to nearly 40&#xa0;°C over the same return periods. Findings suggest that perceived thermal stress is likely to intensify under rare extreme conditions, with temperature extremes showing significant increases over long return periods, although these may not be as pronounced in the short term. The analysis provides essential baseline information for climate adaptation and urban resilience planning in a highly vulnerable Mediterranean city.</p>

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Return level analysis of maximum climatic indicators in a hotspot Mediterranean area

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月21日

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  • Nermeen Gritli,
  • Semia Cherif

摘要

This study assesses extreme climate conditions in Tripoli, Libya, by modeling return levels of temperature, relative humidity, and humidex using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Motivated by limited research on combined heat and humidity extremes in the Mediterranean region, the analysis uses 52 years of hourly meteorological data recorded at Tripoli International Airport. Missing data were addressed through multiple imputation, followed by application of the block maxima method to extract annual maxima. Diagnostic plots confirmed the adequacy and robustness of GEV model fitting. Results indicate that monthly mean maximum temperatures increase from 28.9 °C (2-year return) to 33.8 °C (350-year return). Relative humidity extremes rise slightly from 78% to 81.1%, while humidex values increase from 36 °C to nearly 40 °C over the same return periods. Findings suggest that perceived thermal stress is likely to intensify under rare extreme conditions, with temperature extremes showing significant increases over long return periods, although these may not be as pronounced in the short term. The analysis provides essential baseline information for climate adaptation and urban resilience planning in a highly vulnerable Mediterranean city.