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<p>Mountain lake tourism destinations are increasingly exposed to compound hydroclimatic hazards, yet integrated evidence linking long-term hydroclimatic variability with household resilience remains limited, particularly in protected areas of Southeast Asia. This study investigates hydroclimatic variability and household resilience in Ba Be National Park, Vietnam, using daily precipitation and air-temperature observations for 1990–2025 together with a structured household survey conducted in 2025 (<i>n</i> = 350). Hydroclimatic conditions were characterized using indices of precipitation extremes, dry and wet spells, drought conditions, and temperature extremes, and long-term tendencies were assessed using non-parametric trend analysis. Household resilience was evaluated using an IPCC-consistent framework based on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results show a statistically significant warming trend of 0.035&#xa0;°C yr⁻¹, equivalent to an increase of 1.22&#xa0;°C over the study period, together with marked multi-decadal variability in annual precipitation, including a relatively drier phase in the early to mid-2000s and wetter conditions after 2015. Heavy-rainfall intensity also increased, with annual maximum 1-day precipitation rising from approximately 115&#xa0;mm to 168&#xa0;mm. The destination-level household resilience index was 0.54, indicating moderate resilience. Disaster preparedness and community cohesion were comparatively strong, whereas environmental vulnerability remained substantial. Perceived economic tourism impacts were positively associated with community cohesion and adaptive response, but not with lower environmental vulnerability. These findings indicate that tourism-related livelihood gains can strengthen selected social and adaptive dimensions of resilience, but reducing hydroclimatic risk in mountain lake destinations also requires measures that address structural exposure and sensitivity.</p>

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Hydroclimatic variability and household resilience in a mountain lake tourism destination: a case study of Ba Be National Park, Vietnam

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月14日

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  • Thi Bich Lien Nguyen,
  • Quoc Lap Kieu,
  • Thanh Huy Chu,
  • Duy Minh Dao,
  • Thi Ngoc Ha Tran,
  • Thuy Linh Vi,
  • Thi Bich Hanh Nguyen

摘要

Mountain lake tourism destinations are increasingly exposed to compound hydroclimatic hazards, yet integrated evidence linking long-term hydroclimatic variability with household resilience remains limited, particularly in protected areas of Southeast Asia. This study investigates hydroclimatic variability and household resilience in Ba Be National Park, Vietnam, using daily precipitation and air-temperature observations for 1990–2025 together with a structured household survey conducted in 2025 (n = 350). Hydroclimatic conditions were characterized using indices of precipitation extremes, dry and wet spells, drought conditions, and temperature extremes, and long-term tendencies were assessed using non-parametric trend analysis. Household resilience was evaluated using an IPCC-consistent framework based on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results show a statistically significant warming trend of 0.035 °C yr⁻¹, equivalent to an increase of 1.22 °C over the study period, together with marked multi-decadal variability in annual precipitation, including a relatively drier phase in the early to mid-2000s and wetter conditions after 2015. Heavy-rainfall intensity also increased, with annual maximum 1-day precipitation rising from approximately 115 mm to 168 mm. The destination-level household resilience index was 0.54, indicating moderate resilience. Disaster preparedness and community cohesion were comparatively strong, whereas environmental vulnerability remained substantial. Perceived economic tourism impacts were positively associated with community cohesion and adaptive response, but not with lower environmental vulnerability. These findings indicate that tourism-related livelihood gains can strengthen selected social and adaptive dimensions of resilience, but reducing hydroclimatic risk in mountain lake destinations also requires measures that address structural exposure and sensitivity.