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<p>High-temperature disasters threaten China’s vital citrus industry, disrupting fruit development, reducing yields, and jeopardizing regional agricultural economies. Given the susceptibility of citrus to thermal extremes, a comprehensive risk assessment is urgently needed to guide adaptation measures and plan agricultural production rationally. Therefore, this study intends to develop a comprehensive risk assessment model using a hybrid weighting approach combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the entropy weight method was developed, to evaluate high-temperature disasters in China’s major citrus-producing regions, including Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Chongqing. Using 30 years of meteorological data (1991–2020), citrus production statistics, and socio-economic indicators, the model assesses disaster risk through four dimensions: hazard intensity, environmental sensitivity, exposure level, and the regional adaptive capacity. To ensure robust results, the‍ hybrid method‍ balances‌ expert judgment w⁠ith data-d⁠riven evidence to enhance model accuracy. Results indicate that the highest risk occurs during the fruit expansion stage, with Chongqing and Jiangxi showing the most vulnerability. In contrast, Fujian exhibits consistently low risk across all growth periods. High-resolution spatial analysis revealed that western regions like Sichuan and parts of Guangxi experience more frequent and prolonged heat stress. The findings provide important information regarding disaster preparedness, adaptive cultivation strategies, and long-term climate resilience planning. This research provides a scientific basis for regional risk zoning, policy formulation, and investment in adaptive agricultural infrastructure, helping safeguard the citrus industry under projected warming scenarios. The insights generated are vital for improving disaster preparedness, fostering climate-resilient cultivation techniques, and guiding long-term adaptation planning. Overall, the research makes a substantive contribution to the goals of food security and sustainable agriculture in an era of ongoing climate change.</p>

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Risk evaluation associated with high-temperature disasters in citrus-producing regions of China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月10日

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  • Swe Zin Phyo,
  • Siliang Shuai,
  • Lin Zhao,
  • R. M. Dinesh Madhushanka Karunarathna,
  • Ying Yu,
  • Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam,
  • Qi Li,
  • Zhenghua Hu

摘要

High-temperature disasters threaten China’s vital citrus industry, disrupting fruit development, reducing yields, and jeopardizing regional agricultural economies. Given the susceptibility of citrus to thermal extremes, a comprehensive risk assessment is urgently needed to guide adaptation measures and plan agricultural production rationally. Therefore, this study intends to develop a comprehensive risk assessment model using a hybrid weighting approach combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the entropy weight method was developed, to evaluate high-temperature disasters in China’s major citrus-producing regions, including Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Chongqing. Using 30 years of meteorological data (1991–2020), citrus production statistics, and socio-economic indicators, the model assesses disaster risk through four dimensions: hazard intensity, environmental sensitivity, exposure level, and the regional adaptive capacity. To ensure robust results, the‍ hybrid method‍ balances‌ expert judgment w⁠ith data-d⁠riven evidence to enhance model accuracy. Results indicate that the highest risk occurs during the fruit expansion stage, with Chongqing and Jiangxi showing the most vulnerability. In contrast, Fujian exhibits consistently low risk across all growth periods. High-resolution spatial analysis revealed that western regions like Sichuan and parts of Guangxi experience more frequent and prolonged heat stress. The findings provide important information regarding disaster preparedness, adaptive cultivation strategies, and long-term climate resilience planning. This research provides a scientific basis for regional risk zoning, policy formulation, and investment in adaptive agricultural infrastructure, helping safeguard the citrus industry under projected warming scenarios. The insights generated are vital for improving disaster preparedness, fostering climate-resilient cultivation techniques, and guiding long-term adaptation planning. Overall, the research makes a substantive contribution to the goals of food security and sustainable agriculture in an era of ongoing climate change.