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<p>Ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE) is a key metric that reflects intricate relationship between carbon and water cycles. Although some research has investigated how WUE interacts with gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET, i.e., actual evapotranspiration), limited attention has been given to examining these interactions under future scenarios in global agroecosystems. Therefore, we quantify WUE in global agroecosystems under future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs) by combining the outputs from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to explore mechanisms of its response to GPP and ET. Our results indicate under future scenarios, GPP and ET generally show a decreasing trend with increasing latitude, but exhibit complex latitudinal distribution patterns. Notably, these values are significantly higher under high radiation forcing scenarios compared to low radiation forcing scenarios, suggesting that climate change scenarios exert a substantial regulatory effect on carbon and water fluxes. WUE shows a sustained upward trend under three scenarios, reaching 1.37, 1.38, and 1.45&#xa0;g C kg⁻¹ H₂O yr⁻¹ respectively, with stronger radiation forcing leading to greater increases in WUE. The changes in WUE along the latitude gradient exhibit a non-linear distribution pattern of first decreasing and then increasing, further revealing the complex coupling relationship between regional climate characteristics and ecosystem responses. GPP is the primary controlling factor for future WUE changes, particularly under high radiative forcing scenarios, where its dominant contribution zone accounts for as much as 86.6% ± 0.4%. This study highlights the strategic importance of improving WUE in agroecosystems to enhance climate resilience and ensure food security under intensified global warming.</p>

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GPP dominates the change of WUE trend in the future period

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月10日

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  • Haili Dong,
  • Fei Tian,
  • Peiwen Mu

摘要

Ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE) is a key metric that reflects intricate relationship between carbon and water cycles. Although some research has investigated how WUE interacts with gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET, i.e., actual evapotranspiration), limited attention has been given to examining these interactions under future scenarios in global agroecosystems. Therefore, we quantify WUE in global agroecosystems under future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs) by combining the outputs from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to explore mechanisms of its response to GPP and ET. Our results indicate under future scenarios, GPP and ET generally show a decreasing trend with increasing latitude, but exhibit complex latitudinal distribution patterns. Notably, these values are significantly higher under high radiation forcing scenarios compared to low radiation forcing scenarios, suggesting that climate change scenarios exert a substantial regulatory effect on carbon and water fluxes. WUE shows a sustained upward trend under three scenarios, reaching 1.37, 1.38, and 1.45 g C kg⁻¹ H₂O yr⁻¹ respectively, with stronger radiation forcing leading to greater increases in WUE. The changes in WUE along the latitude gradient exhibit a non-linear distribution pattern of first decreasing and then increasing, further revealing the complex coupling relationship between regional climate characteristics and ecosystem responses. GPP is the primary controlling factor for future WUE changes, particularly under high radiative forcing scenarios, where its dominant contribution zone accounts for as much as 86.6% ± 0.4%. This study highlights the strategic importance of improving WUE in agroecosystems to enhance climate resilience and ensure food security under intensified global warming.