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<p>The rare earth industrial chain, with its irreplaceable role in wind power generation, new energy vehicles and energy-saving motors, is a critical strategic pillar for global low-carbon transition, climate change mitigation, as well as China’s high-end manufacturing and national defense security. Clarifying the structural evolution, major-power interdependence and formation mechanism of the global rare earth trade network (RETN) is essential to securing stable low-carbon raw material supply and supporting global climate goals. Based on 1996–2023 global HS 6-digit rare earth trade data, this study investigates the RETN’s evolution, drivers and climate implications from an asymmetric dependence perspective. Results show that: the non-randomly evolving upstream, midstream and downstream RETNs have shifted from a Europe-US-dominated structure to a multi-center competition-cooperation pattern, with the downstream link expanding fastest; dynamic asymmetric dependence exists among China, the US and Germany; the network evolution is driven by endogenous structural, economic and geographic factors, with heterogeneous effects from geopolitical risks, environmental performance and other variables. To amplify climate mitigation effects, we propose building a climate-oriented full-chain RETN governance system, advancing low-carbon technology innovation and major-power collaborative governance, and establishing an inclusive global rare earth supply resilience mechanism to underpin global climate targets.</p>

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Global rare earth trade dependence network: evolution, mechanism and climate mitigation implications

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月23日

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  • Chunbao Ge,
  • Jie Liu,
  • Na Li,
  • Nan Lu,
  • Gang Wu

摘要

The rare earth industrial chain, with its irreplaceable role in wind power generation, new energy vehicles and energy-saving motors, is a critical strategic pillar for global low-carbon transition, climate change mitigation, as well as China’s high-end manufacturing and national defense security. Clarifying the structural evolution, major-power interdependence and formation mechanism of the global rare earth trade network (RETN) is essential to securing stable low-carbon raw material supply and supporting global climate goals. Based on 1996–2023 global HS 6-digit rare earth trade data, this study investigates the RETN’s evolution, drivers and climate implications from an asymmetric dependence perspective. Results show that: the non-randomly evolving upstream, midstream and downstream RETNs have shifted from a Europe-US-dominated structure to a multi-center competition-cooperation pattern, with the downstream link expanding fastest; dynamic asymmetric dependence exists among China, the US and Germany; the network evolution is driven by endogenous structural, economic and geographic factors, with heterogeneous effects from geopolitical risks, environmental performance and other variables. To amplify climate mitigation effects, we propose building a climate-oriented full-chain RETN governance system, advancing low-carbon technology innovation and major-power collaborative governance, and establishing an inclusive global rare earth supply resilience mechanism to underpin global climate targets.