Mapping drought risks in Sri Lanka based on agriculture reliance using bivariate frequency analysis
摘要
Droughts are prolonged periods of deficient rainfall that severely affecting livelihoods, agriculture, and ecosystems. They have become an increasing concern globally due to rising temperatures with climate change. Because Sri Lanka is a country relying primarily on its agriculture, drought events can impact the social and economic well-being severely. Thus, understanding the return period of droughts is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies. This study aims to quantify and classify drought risks across Sri Lanka by employing Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and bivariate frequency analysis through copula based modeling. Drought duration and severity were calculated for the 25 administrative districts of Sri Lanka using SPI, and bivariate frequency curves were constructed by analyzing the joint dependencies between drought duration and severity. The results of drought returns did not agree with the traditional agro-ecological zone classifications of the country. Based on these results, droughts can be categorized into high, moderate, and low, which differ from the conventional agro-ecological zoning. In summary, we showed the necessity of reclassification of zones using the detailed approach of this study. Further, this study provides valuable insights to enhance future drought mitigation strategies across Sri Lanka that will continue to support its agriculture and social well-being of its citizens.