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<p>In recent decades, the rise in global temperatures attributed to global warming can affect the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Numerous studies have explored changes in extreme rainfall across India under different emission scenarios. The present study intends to examine future changes in precipitation regime in Telangana, a semi-arid region in southern India, utilizing statistically downscaled, bias-corrected projections derived from 13 CMIP6 models. This study encompasses historical and future changes in rainfall extremes based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The Multi Model Mean in the historical simulations effectively reproduces the spatial mean and sub-seasonal variations. Near-future projections suggest a significant increase in mean rainfall during July and August under both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The region displays considerable internal variability and significant increases in rainfall from June to September. Although a slight decrease in the number of rainy days is observed in the near future, an increase is expected in the far future for both SSPs. Remarkably, all precipitation extreme indices (such as number of Rainy days, Simple daily intensity index, Maximum 1-day rainfall, Maximum 5-day rainfall, and Total Precipitation). Except, consecutive dry days are projected to show a significant rise, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 (high emission) scenario in the far future, compared to SSP2-4.5 (medium emission) scenario during the summer months. Overall, the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events in Telangana are expected to intensify during the summer monsoon, with substantial increases projected under both SSP scenarios by the end of the 21st century.</p>

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Consistent increase in Southwest Monsoon rainfall in Telangana, India: insights from bias-corrected CMIP6 simulations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月12日

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  • Amit Gangwar,
  • K. Koteswara Rao,
  • Dandi A. Ramu,
  • A. Dharma Raju,
  • Gopi Krishna Podapati

摘要

In recent decades, the rise in global temperatures attributed to global warming can affect the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Numerous studies have explored changes in extreme rainfall across India under different emission scenarios. The present study intends to examine future changes in precipitation regime in Telangana, a semi-arid region in southern India, utilizing statistically downscaled, bias-corrected projections derived from 13 CMIP6 models. This study encompasses historical and future changes in rainfall extremes based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The Multi Model Mean in the historical simulations effectively reproduces the spatial mean and sub-seasonal variations. Near-future projections suggest a significant increase in mean rainfall during July and August under both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The region displays considerable internal variability and significant increases in rainfall from June to September. Although a slight decrease in the number of rainy days is observed in the near future, an increase is expected in the far future for both SSPs. Remarkably, all precipitation extreme indices (such as number of Rainy days, Simple daily intensity index, Maximum 1-day rainfall, Maximum 5-day rainfall, and Total Precipitation). Except, consecutive dry days are projected to show a significant rise, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 (high emission) scenario in the far future, compared to SSP2-4.5 (medium emission) scenario during the summer months. Overall, the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events in Telangana are expected to intensify during the summer monsoon, with substantial increases projected under both SSP scenarios by the end of the 21st century.