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<p>This study examines the Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations in relation to spring and total annual precipitation during two distinct time periods (1951–1985 and 1986–2021), using data from ten meteorological stations distributed across the country. The Mann–Kendall trend test and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to detect temporal trends and atmospheric relationships. While total annual rainfall exhibited diverse trends, a general decline was detected in spring rainfall across most stations during the second period, highlighting a seasonal decoupling in Iraq’s hydroclimate. For example, despite relative annual stability, spring rainfall dropped in Mosul from 141.4&#xa0;mm to 113.5&#xa0;mm, in Sulaymaniyah from 279.4&#xa0;mm to 225.7&#xa0;mm, in Kirkuk from 141.8&#xa0;mm to 100.1&#xa0;mm, and in Khanaqin from 113.8&#xa0;mm to 76.5&#xa0;mm. The results indicate a noticeable increase in spring drought severity, as the number of “severely dry” events rose from just 1 in the first period to 11 in the second—particularly in Baghdad, Sulaymaniyah, Nasiriya, and Basrah. A significant decrease in the frequency of “very wet” years, which dropped from 18 events in the first period to only 9 in the second. Similarly, “moderately wet” years declined from 21 to 11 events. A relative stability in the frequency of “near-normal” years, with 262 occurrences in the first period and 265 in the second, although station-specific variability was observed. A shift in the statistical correlation between spring rainfall and both NAO and AO were identified, from a generally positive relationship in the first period to a mostly negative one in the second, suggesting a declining influence of these large-scale atmospheric patterns due to climate change. During the first period, NAO was significantly correlated with rainfall in stations such as Rutba (0.414), Hai (0.392), and Basrah (0.352). This influence weakened in the second period, even reversing to negative in several stations. The Arctic Oscillation also showed a positive correlation with rainfall during the first period but turned negative across all stations in the second period, indicating a sharp reduction in its influence on spring precipitation in Iraq compared to the broader annual rainy season.</p>

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Potential links between the North Atlantic oscillation and Arctic Oscillation on spring rainfall in Iraq

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月19日

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  • Ahmad Majid Abbas,
  • Mohammed Younus jabbar,
  • Eman Hussein Rahsid,
  • Mawj Diya Hussain,
  • Marwan Abdullah Mohammad,
  • Noora Zayid Atti,
  • Hussein Majid Abbas

摘要

This study examines the Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations in relation to spring and total annual precipitation during two distinct time periods (1951–1985 and 1986–2021), using data from ten meteorological stations distributed across the country. The Mann–Kendall trend test and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to detect temporal trends and atmospheric relationships. While total annual rainfall exhibited diverse trends, a general decline was detected in spring rainfall across most stations during the second period, highlighting a seasonal decoupling in Iraq’s hydroclimate. For example, despite relative annual stability, spring rainfall dropped in Mosul from 141.4 mm to 113.5 mm, in Sulaymaniyah from 279.4 mm to 225.7 mm, in Kirkuk from 141.8 mm to 100.1 mm, and in Khanaqin from 113.8 mm to 76.5 mm. The results indicate a noticeable increase in spring drought severity, as the number of “severely dry” events rose from just 1 in the first period to 11 in the second—particularly in Baghdad, Sulaymaniyah, Nasiriya, and Basrah. A significant decrease in the frequency of “very wet” years, which dropped from 18 events in the first period to only 9 in the second. Similarly, “moderately wet” years declined from 21 to 11 events. A relative stability in the frequency of “near-normal” years, with 262 occurrences in the first period and 265 in the second, although station-specific variability was observed. A shift in the statistical correlation between spring rainfall and both NAO and AO were identified, from a generally positive relationship in the first period to a mostly negative one in the second, suggesting a declining influence of these large-scale atmospheric patterns due to climate change. During the first period, NAO was significantly correlated with rainfall in stations such as Rutba (0.414), Hai (0.392), and Basrah (0.352). This influence weakened in the second period, even reversing to negative in several stations. The Arctic Oscillation also showed a positive correlation with rainfall during the first period but turned negative across all stations in the second period, indicating a sharp reduction in its influence on spring precipitation in Iraq compared to the broader annual rainy season.