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<p>Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key climate metric with direct implications for crop productivity and food security. However, its long-term evolution and associated cropland exposure in Bangladesh remain poorly quantified. This study analyzes historical DTR trends (1980–2021) and future projections for Bangladesh using ERA5 reanalysis data and CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Historical analysis reveals a significant DTR decline (-0.23&#xa0;°C/decade), driven by asymmetric warming, with Tmin increasing faster than Tmax, particularly in northwestern Bangladesh. Future projections indicate contrasting trends: SSP1-2.6 shows minor increases (+ 0.05&#xa0;°C by 2100), while SSP5-8.5 forecasts substantial reductions (-0.63&#xa0;°C by 2100). These changes substantially increase cropland exposure to narrowing DTR, intensifying thermal stress risks for C3 crops such as rice and wheat under high-emission pathways. Our findings identify narrowing DTR as an emerging but underrecognized climate risk and highlight the need to explicitly integrate DTR-sensitive adaptation measures—including heat-tolerant varieties, adjusted transplanting windows, and optimized water management—into national climate adaptation planning.</p>

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Cropland exposure to projected future changes in diurnal temperature range across Bangladesh

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月17日

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  • Mohammad Kamruzzaman,
  • H. M. Touhidul Islam,
  • Afifa Talukder,
  • Shyamal Krishna Talukder,
  • Sharif Ahmed,
  • Fariha Chowdhury Jain,
  • Anjum Afrin Taj

摘要

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key climate metric with direct implications for crop productivity and food security. However, its long-term evolution and associated cropland exposure in Bangladesh remain poorly quantified. This study analyzes historical DTR trends (1980–2021) and future projections for Bangladesh using ERA5 reanalysis data and CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Historical analysis reveals a significant DTR decline (-0.23 °C/decade), driven by asymmetric warming, with Tmin increasing faster than Tmax, particularly in northwestern Bangladesh. Future projections indicate contrasting trends: SSP1-2.6 shows minor increases (+ 0.05 °C by 2100), while SSP5-8.5 forecasts substantial reductions (-0.63 °C by 2100). These changes substantially increase cropland exposure to narrowing DTR, intensifying thermal stress risks for C3 crops such as rice and wheat under high-emission pathways. Our findings identify narrowing DTR as an emerging but underrecognized climate risk and highlight the need to explicitly integrate DTR-sensitive adaptation measures—including heat-tolerant varieties, adjusted transplanting windows, and optimized water management—into national climate adaptation planning.