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<p>Geographical Indication (GI) agricultural products are characterized by regional specificity, uniqueness, and premium quality. Global climate change is profoundly reshaping the climatic suitability of agricultural lands. Located in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China, Xinjiang has experienced a climatic shift from warm-dry to warm-humid over recent decades, coupled with abundant solar radiation and significant diurnal temperature variations, providing critical natural advantages for specialty crop cultivation. This study focuses on Xinjiang’s emblematic GI product, jujube, employing the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to assess climatic suitability. Utilizing 31 climatic, soil, and topographic variables from 138 cultivation sites, we identified key environmental drivers of jujube distribution and projected future cultivation zones under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 scenarios, including centroid migration trends. Key findings include: (1) Primary environmental determinants are annual mean temperature, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month, and precipitation seasonality; (2) Currently, high suitable areas (5.06 × 10⁴ km²) clustered in western South Xinjiang (Yarkand-Kalakash River basins) and southern Bogda Mountains, suggesting substantial expansion potential for geographical indication compliant jujube without compromising existing croplands; (3) Future projections reveal eastward expansion of suitable zones in South Xinjiang, necessitating tailored cultivation strategies to address climate-driven spatial redistribution. These results provide scientific foundations for optimizing jujube cultivation layouts in response to evolving climatic conditions.</p>

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Climatic suitability zoning of geographical indication Chinese jujube in Xinjiang

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月18日

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  • Xuejing Sun,
  • Tongbin Zhao,
  • Shuning Peng,
  • Xiufen Li,
  • Zhixin Hao

摘要

Geographical Indication (GI) agricultural products are characterized by regional specificity, uniqueness, and premium quality. Global climate change is profoundly reshaping the climatic suitability of agricultural lands. Located in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China, Xinjiang has experienced a climatic shift from warm-dry to warm-humid over recent decades, coupled with abundant solar radiation and significant diurnal temperature variations, providing critical natural advantages for specialty crop cultivation. This study focuses on Xinjiang’s emblematic GI product, jujube, employing the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to assess climatic suitability. Utilizing 31 climatic, soil, and topographic variables from 138 cultivation sites, we identified key environmental drivers of jujube distribution and projected future cultivation zones under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 scenarios, including centroid migration trends. Key findings include: (1) Primary environmental determinants are annual mean temperature, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month, and precipitation seasonality; (2) Currently, high suitable areas (5.06 × 10⁴ km²) clustered in western South Xinjiang (Yarkand-Kalakash River basins) and southern Bogda Mountains, suggesting substantial expansion potential for geographical indication compliant jujube without compromising existing croplands; (3) Future projections reveal eastward expansion of suitable zones in South Xinjiang, necessitating tailored cultivation strategies to address climate-driven spatial redistribution. These results provide scientific foundations for optimizing jujube cultivation layouts in response to evolving climatic conditions.