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<p>Unprecedented occurrences of compound hot-dry events (CHDE) over recent years have raised more attention than ever before. Therefore, it is crucial to re-examine future changes in CHDE across regions most vulnerable to extreme high-temperature events. This work examines both past and projected evolution of CHDE events across North Africa, focusing on the Mediterranean (MED) and Sahara (SAH) regions. Using a combination of observational datasets and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate model ensembles, the study evaluates CHDE occurrences during the historical period (1995–2014) and projects changes for the mid-future (2041–2070) and far-future (2081–2100) under both Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The findings indicate a notable rise in both moderate and severe CHDE frequency by 65–90% under SSP5-8.5, with population exposure projected to triple by 2100. Cities such as Tripoli, Fes, and Rabat are identified as future hotspots, with severe events projected to intensify and become more frequent, especially after 2065. Overall, the study recommends urgent policy interventions to enhance climate resilience. These include implementing early warning systems, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, and adopting targeted adaptation strategies for vulnerable populations.</p>

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21 st century projections of concurrent hot-dry extremes and population exposure in North Africa under two socioeconomic scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月29日

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  • Hassen Babaousmail,
  • Brian Odhiambo Ayugi,
  • Richard Mumo

摘要

Unprecedented occurrences of compound hot-dry events (CHDE) over recent years have raised more attention than ever before. Therefore, it is crucial to re-examine future changes in CHDE across regions most vulnerable to extreme high-temperature events. This work examines both past and projected evolution of CHDE events across North Africa, focusing on the Mediterranean (MED) and Sahara (SAH) regions. Using a combination of observational datasets and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate model ensembles, the study evaluates CHDE occurrences during the historical period (1995–2014) and projects changes for the mid-future (2041–2070) and far-future (2081–2100) under both Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The findings indicate a notable rise in both moderate and severe CHDE frequency by 65–90% under SSP5-8.5, with population exposure projected to triple by 2100. Cities such as Tripoli, Fes, and Rabat are identified as future hotspots, with severe events projected to intensify and become more frequent, especially after 2065. Overall, the study recommends urgent policy interventions to enhance climate resilience. These include implementing early warning systems, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, and adopting targeted adaptation strategies for vulnerable populations.