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<p>The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced pronounced wetting since 1998. The Three Rivers Source Region (TRSR), an interior region of the TP, is underlain by both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground (SFG) that exhibit divergent thermal responses to climate change. However, the differential hydrological consequences of permafrost versus SFG degradation remain uncertain. Using observed soil temperatures from 21 meteorological stations for the period 1998–2017, we compare thermal dynamics throughout the soil profile between permafrost- and SFG-dominated watersheds of the TRSR and quantify their respective impacts on basin-scale hydrology during this marked wetting period. The results indicate that the observed precipitation pattern, which characterized by increased rainfall during warm season but decreased snow depth during cold season, accelerates near-surface soil warming in SFG catchments while amplifying subsurface thermal sensitivity in permafrost-dominated basins. As a whole, thermal degradation in permafrost-dominated catchments exerts a more immediate influence on streamflow than in SFG basins. Hydrological responses in permafrost catchments are contingent upon thermal stability: basins with low thermal stability (rapid Ground freezing index (GFI) decline) exhibit strong runoff sensitivity to permafrost dynamics, whereas basins with high thermal stability (moderate GFI decline) display significant streamflow effects only over longer timescales. Projected increased in precipitation will substantially modify the spatial heterogeneity of permafrost thermal stability, thereby exerting profound impacts on terrestrial water cycles within the “Asian Water Tower”.</p>

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Hydrological impact of near-surface soil warming in China’s Three Rivers Source Region during the seasonally heterogeneous precipitation period from 1998-2017

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月10日

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  • Xuewei Fang,
  • Xing Chen,
  • Xingwen Jiang,
  • Chen Cheng,
  • Yige Xu,
  • Klaus Fraedrich,
  • Shihua Lyu

摘要

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced pronounced wetting since 1998. The Three Rivers Source Region (TRSR), an interior region of the TP, is underlain by both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground (SFG) that exhibit divergent thermal responses to climate change. However, the differential hydrological consequences of permafrost versus SFG degradation remain uncertain. Using observed soil temperatures from 21 meteorological stations for the period 1998–2017, we compare thermal dynamics throughout the soil profile between permafrost- and SFG-dominated watersheds of the TRSR and quantify their respective impacts on basin-scale hydrology during this marked wetting period. The results indicate that the observed precipitation pattern, which characterized by increased rainfall during warm season but decreased snow depth during cold season, accelerates near-surface soil warming in SFG catchments while amplifying subsurface thermal sensitivity in permafrost-dominated basins. As a whole, thermal degradation in permafrost-dominated catchments exerts a more immediate influence on streamflow than in SFG basins. Hydrological responses in permafrost catchments are contingent upon thermal stability: basins with low thermal stability (rapid Ground freezing index (GFI) decline) exhibit strong runoff sensitivity to permafrost dynamics, whereas basins with high thermal stability (moderate GFI decline) display significant streamflow effects only over longer timescales. Projected increased in precipitation will substantially modify the spatial heterogeneity of permafrost thermal stability, thereby exerting profound impacts on terrestrial water cycles within the “Asian Water Tower”.