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<p>Climate extremes have intensified globally in recent decades, generating increasing pressure on environmental systems, water resources, and human activities. This study investigates long-term trends in air temperature and precipitation extremes in the Iguaçu Triple Frontier (Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay), as well as their teleconnection linkages with oceanic climate indices. Daily precipitation and air temperature data from 1961 to 2023 were analyzed for six weather stations across the region. Extreme climate indicators from RClimDex were applied, and trends were assessed using the Mann Kendall and Sen’s slope tests. Additionally, a multivariate statistical framework was employed to examine the relationship between atmospheric variables and key atmospheric–oceanic teleconnection indices including ONI, SOI, PDO, AMO, TSA, SAM, and IOD, incorporating lag analysis, regression models, and performance metrics. The results indicate a significant warming trend in minimum temperatures, particularly for TMINmean at 0.35&#xa0;°C per decade, as well as for nocturnal extremes such as TNn and TN90p, with the strongest changes occurring during JAS and OND. In contrast, precipitation related indicators including Rainfall, RX1Day, and RX5Day did not exhibit statistically significant long-term trends. Significant correlations were identified between TMINmean and TSA at lag 0 and between TXx and AMO at lag 6, indicating immediate or delayed impacts of ocean atmosphere interactions on thermal extremes. ONI and PDO were positively associated with TNx, TN90p, and SPI 1, while SOI and AMO showed inverse patterns. For precipitation extremes, ONI and PDO were positively correlated with RX1Day and RX5Day, whereas TSA, SAM, and SOI were negatively associated. The strongest positive influence on SPI-1 and monthly rainfall was from ONI at a six-month lag. These findings underscore the importance of teleconnection patterns in modulating regional climate variability and extremes.</p>

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Long-term trends in climate extremes and teleconnection linkages in the Iguaçu triple frontier region (Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月20日

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  • Paulo Miguel de Bodas Terassi,
  • Jakeline Baratto,
  • Vitor Hugo Rosa Biffi,
  • Emerson Galvani,
  • Marcia Aparecida Procopio da Silva Scheer,
  • Givanildo de Gois,
  • Bruno Serafini Sobral

摘要

Climate extremes have intensified globally in recent decades, generating increasing pressure on environmental systems, water resources, and human activities. This study investigates long-term trends in air temperature and precipitation extremes in the Iguaçu Triple Frontier (Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay), as well as their teleconnection linkages with oceanic climate indices. Daily precipitation and air temperature data from 1961 to 2023 were analyzed for six weather stations across the region. Extreme climate indicators from RClimDex were applied, and trends were assessed using the Mann Kendall and Sen’s slope tests. Additionally, a multivariate statistical framework was employed to examine the relationship between atmospheric variables and key atmospheric–oceanic teleconnection indices including ONI, SOI, PDO, AMO, TSA, SAM, and IOD, incorporating lag analysis, regression models, and performance metrics. The results indicate a significant warming trend in minimum temperatures, particularly for TMINmean at 0.35 °C per decade, as well as for nocturnal extremes such as TNn and TN90p, with the strongest changes occurring during JAS and OND. In contrast, precipitation related indicators including Rainfall, RX1Day, and RX5Day did not exhibit statistically significant long-term trends. Significant correlations were identified between TMINmean and TSA at lag 0 and between TXx and AMO at lag 6, indicating immediate or delayed impacts of ocean atmosphere interactions on thermal extremes. ONI and PDO were positively associated with TNx, TN90p, and SPI 1, while SOI and AMO showed inverse patterns. For precipitation extremes, ONI and PDO were positively correlated with RX1Day and RX5Day, whereas TSA, SAM, and SOI were negatively associated. The strongest positive influence on SPI-1 and monthly rainfall was from ONI at a six-month lag. These findings underscore the importance of teleconnection patterns in modulating regional climate variability and extremes.