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<p>The investigation of changes and driving factors of extreme precipitation in the Upper-Middle Yellow River (UMYR) is crucial for establishing a scientific basis for water resource management and disaster prevention, particularly under intensified climate variability. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation in the UMYR using daily precipitation data from 59 meteorological stations within the second sub-region of water resources from 1961 to 2020. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimation were applied to assess the variations in extreme precipitation events, while cross-wavelet transform analysis was conducted to identify potential driving factors. The results indicated that: (1) From 1961 to 2020, except for the maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5day), which showed a decreasing trend (-0.02&#xa0;mm/year), all other extreme precipitation indices exhibited increasing trends. During 1961–1990, precipitation across the UMYR basin weakened, followed by a significant intensification after 1990, with synchronized abrupt shifts occurring in the mid–2010s. (2) All extreme precipitation indices increased from northwest to southeast, with the section from Hekou Town to Huayuankou as a high-value zone. Across the UMYR, extreme precipitation intensity increased overall; however, it decreased from Hekou Town to Huayuankou, and showed a significant decline from Longyang Gorge to the Neiliu area. (3) The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerted key driver, whereas the impact of Sunspots (SN) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were comparatively weak. Overall, Extreme precipitation in the UMYR increased during 1961–2020, primarily driven by EASM and ENSO, suggesting that basin-scale water management and disaster prevention strategies must account for both intensifying extremes and pronounced spatial heterogeneity.</p>

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Extreme precipitation variations and key drivers in the Upper-Middle Yellow River based on water resource zoning

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月2日

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  • Chaobing Chen,
  • Shanfeng He,
  • Lanlan Qiu,
  • Shaohong Wu,
  • Zheng Li,
  • Qinmian Bai

摘要

The investigation of changes and driving factors of extreme precipitation in the Upper-Middle Yellow River (UMYR) is crucial for establishing a scientific basis for water resource management and disaster prevention, particularly under intensified climate variability. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation in the UMYR using daily precipitation data from 59 meteorological stations within the second sub-region of water resources from 1961 to 2020. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimation were applied to assess the variations in extreme precipitation events, while cross-wavelet transform analysis was conducted to identify potential driving factors. The results indicated that: (1) From 1961 to 2020, except for the maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5day), which showed a decreasing trend (-0.02 mm/year), all other extreme precipitation indices exhibited increasing trends. During 1961–1990, precipitation across the UMYR basin weakened, followed by a significant intensification after 1990, with synchronized abrupt shifts occurring in the mid–2010s. (2) All extreme precipitation indices increased from northwest to southeast, with the section from Hekou Town to Huayuankou as a high-value zone. Across the UMYR, extreme precipitation intensity increased overall; however, it decreased from Hekou Town to Huayuankou, and showed a significant decline from Longyang Gorge to the Neiliu area. (3) The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerted key driver, whereas the impact of Sunspots (SN) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were comparatively weak. Overall, Extreme precipitation in the UMYR increased during 1961–2020, primarily driven by EASM and ENSO, suggesting that basin-scale water management and disaster prevention strategies must account for both intensifying extremes and pronounced spatial heterogeneity.