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<p>Weather and climate have wide-ranging impacts on tourism, influencing the choice of destination, timing of the trip, and enjoyment of a vacation. A range of tourism climate indices have been developed to quantify the relative climatic suitability of destinations and the seasonality of optimal conditions for tourism. This study applies the Holiday Climate Index: Urban (HCI<sub>urban</sub>) to Iran, exploring monthly variation in suitability scores from 1981 to 2024, coupled with Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA) to examine short-term hot and cold patterns. The findings reveal a distinct seasonal cycle, with over 70% of high-altitude regions classified as unsuitable during winter, while approximately 60% of central and southern regions are categorised as climatically ideal in spring and early summer. Mann-Kendall trends indicate an improvement in climatic suitability of as much as 54.6% in spring, and a decrease of up to 33% in summer across various regions. The EHSA analysis indicates relative persistence of heat patterns (up to 24.9%) and intensification of cold patterns (up to 29.8%) in certain regions of the country. From these results, this study proposes the innovative concept of “climate-dynamic tourism,” emphasising adaptive strategies to climate change, balanced tourist distribution, and environmental preservation. This approach, with a focus on integrated management and future interdisciplinary research, paves the way for sustainable and resilient climate-adaptive policies, focused on marketing the most climatically suitable destinations for each time of the year.</p>

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Facilitating climate-dynamic tourism using the holiday climate index for urban environments (HCIurban): informing the future of holidays in Iran’s changing climate

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月26日

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  • Gholamreza Roshan,
  • AbdolAzim Saman,
  • Jennifer M. Fitchett

摘要

Weather and climate have wide-ranging impacts on tourism, influencing the choice of destination, timing of the trip, and enjoyment of a vacation. A range of tourism climate indices have been developed to quantify the relative climatic suitability of destinations and the seasonality of optimal conditions for tourism. This study applies the Holiday Climate Index: Urban (HCIurban) to Iran, exploring monthly variation in suitability scores from 1981 to 2024, coupled with Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA) to examine short-term hot and cold patterns. The findings reveal a distinct seasonal cycle, with over 70% of high-altitude regions classified as unsuitable during winter, while approximately 60% of central and southern regions are categorised as climatically ideal in spring and early summer. Mann-Kendall trends indicate an improvement in climatic suitability of as much as 54.6% in spring, and a decrease of up to 33% in summer across various regions. The EHSA analysis indicates relative persistence of heat patterns (up to 24.9%) and intensification of cold patterns (up to 29.8%) in certain regions of the country. From these results, this study proposes the innovative concept of “climate-dynamic tourism,” emphasising adaptive strategies to climate change, balanced tourist distribution, and environmental preservation. This approach, with a focus on integrated management and future interdisciplinary research, paves the way for sustainable and resilient climate-adaptive policies, focused on marketing the most climatically suitable destinations for each time of the year.