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<p>Temperature variability and long-term warming are increasingly threatening agricultural sustainability in southern Rwanda, where smallholder farmers rely on climate-sensitive crops. However, comprehensive spatiotemporal assessments of temperature extremes and their impacts on agriculture remain limited. This study used daily minimum and maximum temperature data from 1983 to 2021 for Huye District, provided by the Rwanda Meteorology Agency, and crop productivity data for rice and beans from 2017 to 2021 obtained from the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda. The study analysed spatial and seasonal variability and trends of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), mean temperature (Tmean), and extreme temperature indices, including coldest nights (TNn), warm nights (TN90p), hottest days (TXx), and diurnal temperature range (DTR) across 14 administrative sectors within the district. Variability was assessed using the coefficient of variation, trends using the Modified Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, and temperature crop relationships using Pearson correlation and linear regression. Results revealed strong spatial and seasonal variability, with Tmin variability of 7.92–8.92% in eastern Rusatira, southwestern Karama, and eastern Gishamvu, compared to 2.92–3.92% in Kigoma and Simbi. Tmax variability during January–February ranged from 2.88 to 3.18% in eastern Kinazi, central Karama, and southern Gishamvu to 1.98–2.28% in Kigoma and northeastern Mukura. Tmean variability was 40.04–47.84% in Rusatira, Ruhashya, Rwaniro, and Maraba, and 16.64–24.44% in Simbi and Kigoma, while TN90p variability (201.7–237.7%) and DTR (8.85–9.9%) were highest in eastern Rusatira. Significant (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01) warming trends in Tmin (0.35–0.47&#xa0;°C per decade) were observed in Rusatira, Karama, and Gishamvu, and in Tmax (2.29–3.70&#xa0;°C per decade) in Kigoma, while TNn increased by 0.57–0.64&#xa0;°C per decade in Rusatira and Kinazi. Tmean showed moderate negative correlations with rice (<i>r</i> = − 0.572) and bean (<i>r</i> = − 0.571) yields, though not statistically significant (<i>p</i> = 0.31). These findings highlight climate-induced agricultural risks and underscore the need for adaptive strategies, including heat-tolerant varieties, irrigation expansion, and localized early warning systems to enhance resilience and food security in Huye District.</p>

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Spatio-temporal temperature analysis for agricultural sustainability in Huye District, Southern Rwanda

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月2日

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  • Sylvere Kubwimana,
  • Runyambo Irakiza,
  • Vedaste Nyandwi,
  • Emmanuel Ngendahayo

摘要

Temperature variability and long-term warming are increasingly threatening agricultural sustainability in southern Rwanda, where smallholder farmers rely on climate-sensitive crops. However, comprehensive spatiotemporal assessments of temperature extremes and their impacts on agriculture remain limited. This study used daily minimum and maximum temperature data from 1983 to 2021 for Huye District, provided by the Rwanda Meteorology Agency, and crop productivity data for rice and beans from 2017 to 2021 obtained from the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda. The study analysed spatial and seasonal variability and trends of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), mean temperature (Tmean), and extreme temperature indices, including coldest nights (TNn), warm nights (TN90p), hottest days (TXx), and diurnal temperature range (DTR) across 14 administrative sectors within the district. Variability was assessed using the coefficient of variation, trends using the Modified Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, and temperature crop relationships using Pearson correlation and linear regression. Results revealed strong spatial and seasonal variability, with Tmin variability of 7.92–8.92% in eastern Rusatira, southwestern Karama, and eastern Gishamvu, compared to 2.92–3.92% in Kigoma and Simbi. Tmax variability during January–February ranged from 2.88 to 3.18% in eastern Kinazi, central Karama, and southern Gishamvu to 1.98–2.28% in Kigoma and northeastern Mukura. Tmean variability was 40.04–47.84% in Rusatira, Ruhashya, Rwaniro, and Maraba, and 16.64–24.44% in Simbi and Kigoma, while TN90p variability (201.7–237.7%) and DTR (8.85–9.9%) were highest in eastern Rusatira. Significant (p < 0.01) warming trends in Tmin (0.35–0.47 °C per decade) were observed in Rusatira, Karama, and Gishamvu, and in Tmax (2.29–3.70 °C per decade) in Kigoma, while TNn increased by 0.57–0.64 °C per decade in Rusatira and Kinazi. Tmean showed moderate negative correlations with rice (r = − 0.572) and bean (r = − 0.571) yields, though not statistically significant (p = 0.31). These findings highlight climate-induced agricultural risks and underscore the need for adaptive strategies, including heat-tolerant varieties, irrigation expansion, and localized early warning systems to enhance resilience and food security in Huye District.