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<p>Analyzing the impacts of climate change on hydrological extremes is vital for understanding future water balance performance and establishing sustainable adaptation strategies. This study focused on investigating the trends in future climate projections and assessing the effects of climate change on hydrological extremes in the Awash River Basin during the 2030s and 2050s. The research utilized the Sen’s Slope Test to analyze climate trends and the modified SWAT + hydrologic model to simulate hydrological components. Following an evaluation of model performance and biases from ten CMIP6-GCMs, the most reliable models under the social shared socio economic pathways SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios for future projections were identified. The study revealed that an annual decreasing trends in the future rainfall and increasing trends in minimum and maximum temperatures, with projected temperature increases of up to 3.21&#xa0;°C.Annual stream flow is expected to decrease, with maximum reductions of 31.4% in the 2050s. Likewise extreme flow trends indicated significant changes, with maximum and minimum flow projections with the range of (-50.5% to -8.4%) and (-73.6 to 15.1%) respectively. Generally changes in future hydro-climatic extremes are frequently decreased as compared to the base line period (1985–2014).These findings emphasize the importance of implementing effective adaptive measures to manage water resources in the Awash River Basin amidst changing hydro-climatic conditions.</p>

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Assessing the effect of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Awash River Basin using QSWAT + and CMIP6 projections

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月27日

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  • Teshome Kifle,
  • Gashaw Sintayehu

摘要

Analyzing the impacts of climate change on hydrological extremes is vital for understanding future water balance performance and establishing sustainable adaptation strategies. This study focused on investigating the trends in future climate projections and assessing the effects of climate change on hydrological extremes in the Awash River Basin during the 2030s and 2050s. The research utilized the Sen’s Slope Test to analyze climate trends and the modified SWAT + hydrologic model to simulate hydrological components. Following an evaluation of model performance and biases from ten CMIP6-GCMs, the most reliable models under the social shared socio economic pathways SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios for future projections were identified. The study revealed that an annual decreasing trends in the future rainfall and increasing trends in minimum and maximum temperatures, with projected temperature increases of up to 3.21 °C.Annual stream flow is expected to decrease, with maximum reductions of 31.4% in the 2050s. Likewise extreme flow trends indicated significant changes, with maximum and minimum flow projections with the range of (-50.5% to -8.4%) and (-73.6 to 15.1%) respectively. Generally changes in future hydro-climatic extremes are frequently decreased as compared to the base line period (1985–2014).These findings emphasize the importance of implementing effective adaptive measures to manage water resources in the Awash River Basin amidst changing hydro-climatic conditions.