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<p>Agriculture is the backbone of Afghanistan’s economy, benefiting from a unique climate well-suited for the cultivation of temperate fruits. However, the agriculture and horticulture sub-sector is highly vulnerable to climate change, which adversely affects agroecosystems, food production, and livelihoods. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to assess horticultural crop growers’ vulnerability to climate change using a mixed quantitative and qualitative methodology. The primary data were based on 200 agricultural farmers from ten major villages in four selected districts of Parwan province, and secondary data were obtained from provincial departments. The results showed a rise in temperatures and a decline in precipitation from 2008 to 2022. Maximum temperatures increased by 0.672&#xa0;°C, and minimum temperatures rose by 0.582&#xa0;°C. Meanwhile, precipitation fell by 32.532&#xa0;mm during the same timeframe. There are exposure components of vulnerability that had an impact on the vulnerability of major fruit crop growers—apple, almond, apricot, and plum—in the region, with an average index for apples and stone fruits of 0.606. Also, the average sensitivity index for apples (0.364) and stone fruits (0.439), along with the average adaptive capacity index for apples (0.290) and stone fruits (0.279), shows slight differences. Both apple and stone fruits are highly vulnerable in terms of exposure and sensitivity, largely because of weak socio-economic conditions and poor infrastructure for the growers. The vulnerability index (VI) attributed to adaptive capacity is very low, which stems from significant climate change risks, inadequate extension services, weak institutional capacity, and limited financial support. The overall vulnerability index for stone fruits (0.392) is higher than that for apples (0.360). To mitigate climate change vulnerability in horticultural crop growers, the government should prioritize weather-based insurance, financial support, pest and disease management training, tolerant varieties, diverse cropping systems, improved market access, and infrastructural development such as irrigation networks, the construction of water reservoirs, and the establishment of fruit processing plants to enhance resilience to climate change.</p>

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Assessment of the vulnerability of orchard farmers to climate change in the central highlands of Afghanistan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月6日

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  • Lutfullah Safi

摘要

Agriculture is the backbone of Afghanistan’s economy, benefiting from a unique climate well-suited for the cultivation of temperate fruits. However, the agriculture and horticulture sub-sector is highly vulnerable to climate change, which adversely affects agroecosystems, food production, and livelihoods. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to assess horticultural crop growers’ vulnerability to climate change using a mixed quantitative and qualitative methodology. The primary data were based on 200 agricultural farmers from ten major villages in four selected districts of Parwan province, and secondary data were obtained from provincial departments. The results showed a rise in temperatures and a decline in precipitation from 2008 to 2022. Maximum temperatures increased by 0.672 °C, and minimum temperatures rose by 0.582 °C. Meanwhile, precipitation fell by 32.532 mm during the same timeframe. There are exposure components of vulnerability that had an impact on the vulnerability of major fruit crop growers—apple, almond, apricot, and plum—in the region, with an average index for apples and stone fruits of 0.606. Also, the average sensitivity index for apples (0.364) and stone fruits (0.439), along with the average adaptive capacity index for apples (0.290) and stone fruits (0.279), shows slight differences. Both apple and stone fruits are highly vulnerable in terms of exposure and sensitivity, largely because of weak socio-economic conditions and poor infrastructure for the growers. The vulnerability index (VI) attributed to adaptive capacity is very low, which stems from significant climate change risks, inadequate extension services, weak institutional capacity, and limited financial support. The overall vulnerability index for stone fruits (0.392) is higher than that for apples (0.360). To mitigate climate change vulnerability in horticultural crop growers, the government should prioritize weather-based insurance, financial support, pest and disease management training, tolerant varieties, diverse cropping systems, improved market access, and infrastructural development such as irrigation networks, the construction of water reservoirs, and the establishment of fruit processing plants to enhance resilience to climate change.