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<p>Climate change has profoundly impacted Afghanistan’s Helmand River Basin (HRB) resulting in rising temperatures decreased precipitation and reduced river discharge. These climatic shifts have significantly altered land cover impacting water resources agriculture and ecosystems that sustain livelihoods and well-being in the basin. This study employs Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) the Mann-Kendall (MK) method and Sen’s Slope (SS) method to analyze trends in mean annual temperature precipitation and river discharge in the HRB since 1980. Climate data were sourced from the GFDL-ESM4 model and river discharge data were obtained from the GloFAS-ERA5 dataset. Additionally land cover changes were assessed by comparing 1992 and 2020 land cover classifications usingESA CCI-LC version 2 .0.7 data. Results indicate a gradual increase in temperature and a steady decline in precipitation and river discharge since 1980. Comparative land cover analysis between 1992 and 2020 reveals substantial changes, including significant shrinkage of green cover. These findings underscore the severe and escalating impacts of climate change on the HRB’s already vulnerable water resources. Linked discharge trends to mapped surface-water shrinkage; quantifies downstream losses near the Iran border; harmonizes multidecadal hydroclimate and land-cover evidence. The study emphasizes the pressing need for sustainable water resource management, agricultural adaptation, and comprehensive development strategies for the river basin. Emphasis is placed on the critical need for adaptation measures to mitigate the effects of climate change and enhance resilience within the basin.</p>

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Investigating climate change impacts from hydroclimatic trends and land cover change in Afghanistan’s Helmand River Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月12日

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  • Noor Ahmad Akhundzadah

摘要

Climate change has profoundly impacted Afghanistan’s Helmand River Basin (HRB) resulting in rising temperatures decreased precipitation and reduced river discharge. These climatic shifts have significantly altered land cover impacting water resources agriculture and ecosystems that sustain livelihoods and well-being in the basin. This study employs Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) the Mann-Kendall (MK) method and Sen’s Slope (SS) method to analyze trends in mean annual temperature precipitation and river discharge in the HRB since 1980. Climate data were sourced from the GFDL-ESM4 model and river discharge data were obtained from the GloFAS-ERA5 dataset. Additionally land cover changes were assessed by comparing 1992 and 2020 land cover classifications usingESA CCI-LC version 2 .0.7 data. Results indicate a gradual increase in temperature and a steady decline in precipitation and river discharge since 1980. Comparative land cover analysis between 1992 and 2020 reveals substantial changes, including significant shrinkage of green cover. These findings underscore the severe and escalating impacts of climate change on the HRB’s already vulnerable water resources. Linked discharge trends to mapped surface-water shrinkage; quantifies downstream losses near the Iran border; harmonizes multidecadal hydroclimate and land-cover evidence. The study emphasizes the pressing need for sustainable water resource management, agricultural adaptation, and comprehensive development strategies for the river basin. Emphasis is placed on the critical need for adaptation measures to mitigate the effects of climate change and enhance resilience within the basin.