<p>A model for simulating peat accumulation at the millennium and longer timescales is developed and implemented into an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). This makes it possible to simulate peat accumulation during the Holocene taking into account common natural factors and anthropogenic forcings and to reproduce the present–day peat carbon stock upon applying the Bayesian averaging–based tuning. The&#xa0;modelled global stock in the nominal year 2000&#xa0;C.E. is 622&#xa0;PgC, and the Northern extratropical peat stock is 528&#xa0;PgC showing a high level of agreement between the model predictions and empirically established estimates. Our model also realistically reproduces this stock in the major peatland complexes, such as the West Siberian Lowlands (79&#xa0;PgC) and the Hudson Bay Lowlands (36&#xa0;PgC). In&#xa0;these major complexes, peat stock is typically exceeds 300&#xa0;kgC&#xa0;m<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(^{-2}\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Carbon stock estimates in tropical peatlands obtained using the model are relatively high, but do not exceed the range of uncertainty in empirically established estimates.</p>

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A simulation of the peat accumulation in the Holocene

  • Sergey N. Denisov,
  • Georgii A. Alexandrov,
  • Alexey V. Eliseev

摘要

A model for simulating peat accumulation at the millennium and longer timescales is developed and implemented into an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). This makes it possible to simulate peat accumulation during the Holocene taking into account common natural factors and anthropogenic forcings and to reproduce the present–day peat carbon stock upon applying the Bayesian averaging–based tuning. The modelled global stock in the nominal year 2000 C.E. is 622 PgC, and the Northern extratropical peat stock is 528 PgC showing a high level of agreement between the model predictions and empirically established estimates. Our model also realistically reproduces this stock in the major peatland complexes, such as the West Siberian Lowlands (79 PgC) and the Hudson Bay Lowlands (36 PgC). In these major complexes, peat stock is typically exceeds 300 kgC m \(^{-2}\) . Carbon stock estimates in tropical peatlands obtained using the model are relatively high, but do not exceed the range of uncertainty in empirically established estimates.