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<p>This research evaluated trends in extreme climate indicators associated with air temperature and rainfall in the northern and northwestern regions of Paraná State. Extreme climate indicators developed by the Canadian Meteorological Service and the Mann–Kendall test were applied to daily rainfall, maximum, and minimum temperature data from 35 rain gauge stations operated by the Instituto das Águas do Paraná and five meteorological stations (IAPAR, INMET, and SIMEPAR) for the period from 1976 to 2021. The results revealed a widespread warming trend, with the most frequent and intense changes observed in Maringá and Londrina, respectively. In Maringá, the annual average maximum temperature increased by 0.46°C per decade and the highest annual maximum temperature (TXx) by 0.92°C per decade, equating to approximately 4.2°C over 46 years. There was also a pattern of increased concentrated rainfall (SDII) and, to a lesser extent, annual maximum daily rainfall (RX1Day), contrasting with a rise in consecutive dry days (CDD). This indicates that, despite more extreme rainfall events, the dry season is lengthening, combined with higher temperatures, suggesting a shift towards climate conditions typical of tropical regions. This change may be linked to the expansion of deforested areas, now replaced by urban development, agricultural, and livestock activities. To investigate these transformations, the Mann–Kendall test was also applied to annual land use and land cover (LUCL) data from the MapBiomas Project (Collection 9), revealing distinct dynamics: sugarcane expanded most intensively in Pirapó (314.4 km<sup>2</sup>/decade); pasture sharply declined; soybean expanded in Pirapó (364.1 km<sup>2</sup>/decade) and Paranapanema III (247.5 km<sup>2</sup>/decade); and urbanization was most intense in Pirapó (35.9 km<sup>2</sup>/decade).</p>

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Warming, rainfall extremes, and land use dynamics in Northern and Northwestern Paraná, Brazil

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月6日

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  • Paulo Miguel de Bodas Terassi,
  • Vitor Hugo Rosa Biffi,
  • Jakeline Baratto,
  • Emerson Galvani,
  • Antonio Carlos da Silva Oscar-Júnior,
  • Givanildo de Gois,
  • Bruno Serafini Sobral

摘要

This research evaluated trends in extreme climate indicators associated with air temperature and rainfall in the northern and northwestern regions of Paraná State. Extreme climate indicators developed by the Canadian Meteorological Service and the Mann–Kendall test were applied to daily rainfall, maximum, and minimum temperature data from 35 rain gauge stations operated by the Instituto das Águas do Paraná and five meteorological stations (IAPAR, INMET, and SIMEPAR) for the period from 1976 to 2021. The results revealed a widespread warming trend, with the most frequent and intense changes observed in Maringá and Londrina, respectively. In Maringá, the annual average maximum temperature increased by 0.46°C per decade and the highest annual maximum temperature (TXx) by 0.92°C per decade, equating to approximately 4.2°C over 46 years. There was also a pattern of increased concentrated rainfall (SDII) and, to a lesser extent, annual maximum daily rainfall (RX1Day), contrasting with a rise in consecutive dry days (CDD). This indicates that, despite more extreme rainfall events, the dry season is lengthening, combined with higher temperatures, suggesting a shift towards climate conditions typical of tropical regions. This change may be linked to the expansion of deforested areas, now replaced by urban development, agricultural, and livestock activities. To investigate these transformations, the Mann–Kendall test was also applied to annual land use and land cover (LUCL) data from the MapBiomas Project (Collection 9), revealing distinct dynamics: sugarcane expanded most intensively in Pirapó (314.4 km2/decade); pasture sharply declined; soybean expanded in Pirapó (364.1 km2/decade) and Paranapanema III (247.5 km2/decade); and urbanization was most intense in Pirapó (35.9 km2/decade).