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<p>Understanding the behaviors of fire danger in fire-prone Western North America (WNA) under the CO<sub>2</sub> removal scenario is important for future climate adaptation. This study investigates fire weather responses to idealized symmetric CO₂ ramp-up (~ 285 to 1140 ppmv) and ramp-down forcing. We demonstrate that fire weather peaks 7–11 years after maximum CO₂ concentration, with additional intensification (~ 5.5%) at identical CO₂ levels during ramp-down versus ramp-up. This hysteresis stems from drier conditions when CO<sub>2</sub> returns to the initial level, exacerbated by warmer temperatures and reduced humidity. Suppressed precipitation primarily results from southeastward expansion of the North Pacific subtropical high, which is in turn linked to hysteretic response of Pacific sea surface temperature. Our findings reveal the persistence and intensification of WNA fire weather even when CO₂ returns to preindustrial levels through decarbonization. The presence of fire weather hysteresis leads to its amplified and prolonged impact in a warming climate, depending on the details of future mitigation pathways.</p>

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Hysteretic response of Western North American fire weather to CO₂ removal

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月16日

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  • Ting Wei,
  • Wenjie Dong,
  • Yueli Chen

摘要

Understanding the behaviors of fire danger in fire-prone Western North America (WNA) under the CO2 removal scenario is important for future climate adaptation. This study investigates fire weather responses to idealized symmetric CO₂ ramp-up (~ 285 to 1140 ppmv) and ramp-down forcing. We demonstrate that fire weather peaks 7–11 years after maximum CO₂ concentration, with additional intensification (~ 5.5%) at identical CO₂ levels during ramp-down versus ramp-up. This hysteresis stems from drier conditions when CO2 returns to the initial level, exacerbated by warmer temperatures and reduced humidity. Suppressed precipitation primarily results from southeastward expansion of the North Pacific subtropical high, which is in turn linked to hysteretic response of Pacific sea surface temperature. Our findings reveal the persistence and intensification of WNA fire weather even when CO₂ returns to preindustrial levels through decarbonization. The presence of fire weather hysteresis leads to its amplified and prolonged impact in a warming climate, depending on the details of future mitigation pathways.