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<p>Climate change poses a severe threat to tropical biodiversity, particularly in ecologically vulnerable regions like the Upper Paraguay Basin in Brazil (UPB), which encompasses both the flood-dependent Pantanal wetland and the adjacent highland Plateau. This study employs ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess potential climate change impacts on the distribution of indicator tree species from these contrasting ecosystems under two future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and time periods (2041–2060 and 2081–2100). Models were constrained to forest and savanna remnants (MapBiomas) to ensure ecological realism and avoid overestimation of habitat availability. Results demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC &gt; 0.9; TSS ≥ 0.7), with key climatic drivers varying by region: Plateau species responded primarily to altitude and precipitation seasonality (Bio15), while Pantanal species were most sensitive to mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10) and precipitation of wettest quarter (Bio16). Projections revealed a clear climatic decoupling in species responses, while Plateau species exhibited upslope range shifts following altitudinal gradients, Pantanal species experienced severe range contractions under extreme scenarios, reflecting their dependence on hydrological stability associated with drainage systems and depression areas of the Plateau. Critical climate refugia were identified in transitional zones and elevated areas (e.g., Serra do Amolar, Maciço do Urucum). These findings underscore the importance of incorporating topographic and hydrological gradients into conservation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts. The study highlights urgent priorities for biodiversity protection in the UPB while calling for future research to integrate dispersal dynamics and non-climatic stressors for more robust projections.</p>

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Climatic decoupling of tree floras under climate change in the central region of South America

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月4日

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  • Marcelo Leandro Bueno,
  • Rodrigo Cyrino Rivaben,
  • Arnildo Pott,
  • Geraldo Alves Damasceno Jr,
  • Larissa de Oliveira Cardoso,
  • Eliane Vieira,
  • Jefferson Matheus Barros Ozório,
  • Vanessa Pontara

摘要

Climate change poses a severe threat to tropical biodiversity, particularly in ecologically vulnerable regions like the Upper Paraguay Basin in Brazil (UPB), which encompasses both the flood-dependent Pantanal wetland and the adjacent highland Plateau. This study employs ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess potential climate change impacts on the distribution of indicator tree species from these contrasting ecosystems under two future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and time periods (2041–2060 and 2081–2100). Models were constrained to forest and savanna remnants (MapBiomas) to ensure ecological realism and avoid overestimation of habitat availability. Results demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.9; TSS ≥ 0.7), with key climatic drivers varying by region: Plateau species responded primarily to altitude and precipitation seasonality (Bio15), while Pantanal species were most sensitive to mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10) and precipitation of wettest quarter (Bio16). Projections revealed a clear climatic decoupling in species responses, while Plateau species exhibited upslope range shifts following altitudinal gradients, Pantanal species experienced severe range contractions under extreme scenarios, reflecting their dependence on hydrological stability associated with drainage systems and depression areas of the Plateau. Critical climate refugia were identified in transitional zones and elevated areas (e.g., Serra do Amolar, Maciço do Urucum). These findings underscore the importance of incorporating topographic and hydrological gradients into conservation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts. The study highlights urgent priorities for biodiversity protection in the UPB while calling for future research to integrate dispersal dynamics and non-climatic stressors for more robust projections.